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Global Central Bank ‘Super Week’ Faces Off Against NFP

um editor

UM Editor

February 2, 2026 at 11:31 am

This week, rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will showcase the trade-offs major economies are making between combating inflation and sustaining growth.

Running parallel, a stream of U.S. data—particularly Wednesday’s ADP data and key services indicators, culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls main event—will provide the most direct evidence of U.S. economic health and the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy decisions.

Key Event to Watch:

1. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision – Tuesday

The market widely expects the RBA to hold its interest rate steady at 3.60%. The central bank recently expressed caution about cutting rates due to “persistently high inflation.” If the statement reveals any new concerns about the stubbornness of inflation, it could support the Australian dollar. Conversely, any mention of downside risks to the economy may be interpreted as a dovish signal.

2. Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision – Thursday

The Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision, with the market also expecting it to hold rates steady. The key to the decision lies in how Governor Bailey and the committee balance weak inflation data against still-strong wage growth, and whether they will open a clear window for a mid-year rate cut. Any dovish hints are likely to put pressure on the pound.

3. European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision – Thursday

On the same day, the ECB will also announce its rate decision, with markets forecasting a fifth consecutive hold. Although inflation is approaching the target, an ECB governing council member stated it would be “hard to find a reason to adjust rates” in the coming months. Therefore, President Lagarde’s assessment of the “last mile” for inflation and the threshold for a policy pivot will be the critical factors influencing the euro’s direction.

4. U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Report – Friday

The Non-Farm Payrolls report will be crucial for assessing U.S. economic resilience and the pace of Federal Reserve policy. If job growth is solid but not spectacular, and wage pressures are moderate, it would likely support risk assets. Conversely, strong wage growth could reignite inflation concerns. This report will provide essential evidence for the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate path.

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