Oil & Gold Tumble on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Tensions in the Middle East saw a dramatic shift on Monday as U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation.

The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—comes after a wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets.

Ceasefire Likely, But Still Uncertain

While President Trump claimed a ceasefire had been reached, neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran would halt its attacks if Israel ceases airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time.

“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Araghchi posted. “However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”

This conditional stance suggests that tensions could quickly flare again if no mutual confirmation or coordinated de-escalation is achieved.

Market Reaction: Commodities Tumble on Ceasefire Hopes

Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation from either Israel or Iran, markets responded swiftly to the apparent easing of geopolitical tensions.

Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% on Tuesday morning as hopes for de-escalation gained traction. Brent crude slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, while WTI crude fell back near its pre-conflict levels, reflecting a sharp unwinding of war-risk premiums.

Gold, which had rallied to near-record highs of $3430 last week amid heightened safe-haven demand, also experienced a modest pullback. The precious metal stabilized around $3330, with the softening in geopolitical risks reducing short-term demand. Nonetheless, gold remains underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

In the equities market, improved risk appetite triggered a moderate rebound across global indices, as investors reassessed the likelihood of worst-case conflict scenarios and shifted focus back to economic fundamentals.

Oil & Gold: Technical Outlook

Gold: $3,330 Holds

Despite recent fluctuations, gold has largely remained range-bound, trading between the $3390 and $3350 levels.

XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical standpoint, the $3335 level continues to act as a key support area for gold. While easing tensions in the Middle East may temporarily improve overall market sentiment and soften safe-haven demand, gold remains supported by broader macroeconomic uncertainties—particularly concerns over inflation and lingering tariff-related risks.

WTI: Retest the $66 Level

USOUSD WTI, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Meanwhile, WTI saw a sharp pullback, retreating to its pre-conflict level near $66 per barrel—a key psychological level that has played a significant role over the past four years. This zone is likely to remain a crucial support for WTI in the near term.

Market Outlook

The ceasefire has provided immediate relief to global markets, but the path forward remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region and Iran’s next steps in nuclear negotiations. Any resurgence in conflict could rapidly reverse the current trend in commodities and reignite volatility.

Disclaimer

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