Oil Prices Ease on Ceasefire Agreement

Global oil prices slipped yesterday, with WTI crude trading below $67 and Brent hovering near $70 per barrel, following a 30-day partial ceasefire agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia-Ukraine War: Partial Ceasefire Agreement

Following a call with President Trump, Putin agreed to a 30-day halt in attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including power plants, grids, and energy supply lines. However, Putin rejected broader ceasefire proposals, stating that Russia would only consider a full truce if Western countries halt military aid to Ukraine.

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the demand as “unacceptable”, reaffirming that Ukraine would not negotiate under coercion.

While the temporary halt in attacks is seen as a step toward a potential peace agreement, Putin’s additional demands and continued military actions raise concerns about Russia’s true intentions.

Market Reactions: Oil Price Remains Volatile Amid Uncertainty

The energy market responded swiftly to the ceasefire announcement, with oil prices slipped following the ceasefire announcement, reversing an earlier rally:

• Brent crude briefly dropped to $70.44 per barrel.
• WTI crude fell to $66.75 per barrel.

Despite easing supply concerns, markets remain cautious about Russia’s commitment to the ceasefire and the possibility of renewed attacks once the temporary truce expires.

Russia’s Oil Strategy and Future Production Outlook

Despite international sanctions, Russia remains a key player in global oil markets, with Moscow announcing plans to produce 515-520 million metric tonnes of crude oil in 2025. This projection signals Russia’s confidence in maintaining stable exports, particularly to China and India, which continue to purchase discounted Russian crude despite Western restrictions.

Oil Price Outlook: Markets Eye Geopolitical Risks

Despite global oil price pressures, both benchmarks are holding steady near five-year lows—Brent at $70 and WTI at $65 per barrel. Prices have rarely traded below these levels since 2021, providing key support for the market.

(Brent Crude Oil, Day-Chart; Source: Trading View)

(WTI Crude Oil, Day-Chart; Source: Trading View)

While Trump’s involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations marks a significant diplomatic effort, the path to a lasting peace deal remains highly uncertain.

• If Ukraine refuses to halt military aid from the West, Russia is likely to resume full-scale attacks after the 30-day truce.
• If Middle East tensions escalate, oil prices could spike unexpectedly despite the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

Markets are now closely watching whether oil prices have sufficient catalysts to push lower, potentially testing their five-year low support levels.

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