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中東局勢驟然升級，原油價格強勁反彈

由於地緣政治風險再度飆升，布蘭特原油在週二大幅飆升超 5%，帶動整體油價強勁反彈。就在原油價格此前剛跌回戰前常態水平之際，局勢的突然惡化導致地緣政治風險溢價再度瘋狂積聚。儘管結構上油價仍處於戰前區間附近，但本次反彈已創下近三周以來的最高交易水平。

中東局勢驟然升級，原油價格強勁反彈

美國對伊朗發動空襲

  • 儘管此前雙方達成了初步和平協議，但美軍仍對伊朗境內目標發動了一系列針對性空襲。
  • 華盛頓方面表示，此次軍事打擊是對伊朗此前在霍爾木茲海峽襲擊三艘商船的直接報復。
  • 伊朗官方媒體證實，該國南部地區傳出多聲劇烈爆炸聲。
  • 伴隨軍事行動，美國宣布將撤銷此前對伊朗原油出口臨時放寬的制裁，面臨再度切斷其原油供應的風險。

局勢的驟然升級徹底逆轉了原油期貨的盤中跌勢，推動布蘭特原油與美國西德州原油（WTI）顯著衝高。避險情緒與通膨隱憂同步引發美債收益率大幅飆升，美國 10 年期國債收益率升至 4.55%，2 年期國債收益率則攀升至 4.187%。

原油市場仍受消息面驅動

儘管日內反彈勢頭極其兇猛，但原油價格在整體大格局上依然處於戰前水平附近。目前的暴漲更傾向於由短期地緣消息觸發的空頭回補回升，而技術面整體依然維持看跌架構。

除非看到中東局勢出現進一步、持續性的劇烈惡化，否則對眼下的任何反彈都應保持高度審慎。簡而言之，短期內油價將在頻繁的消息面刺激下維持高劇烈波動。

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