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科技股財報與 AI 資本支出成為市場焦點

ltima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年7月22日

出口數據強勁與科技敘事推動市場反彈

受韓國與台灣強勁的半導體出口數據以及科技和人工智慧(AI)敘事重拾動能的推動,全球股票市場迎來強勢反彈。與此同時,中東地緣政治的不確定性持續存在,再次引發避險買盤,推動金價大幅走高。

外匯市場方面,日圓遭遇劇烈拋售,美元兌日圓(USD/JPY)一舉突破 163.00 關口,創下自 1986 年以來的 40 年新低。

展望後市,市場焦點將完全轉向本週重磅發布的巨型科技股財報,今日將由 Alphabet、特斯拉(Tesla)和 IBM 率先打響頭砲。

  • 顯微鏡下的 AI 資本支出: 投資者正高度關注管理層對 AI 資本支出(Capex)的前瞻指引。
  • 地緣局勢與能源阻力: 此前科技股的拋售主要是由中東局勢升級和能源風險擔憂引發,這曾威脅到市場對 AI 基礎設施支出的信心。

隨着今日有 77 家標普 500 指數成分股公司公布業績,本週將是對 AI 支出軌跡以及更廣泛的美國企業盈利能力最全面的一次檢驗。因此,今日發布的財報將主導整體市場的走勢。

股票市場展望:美股三大指數面臨關鍵檢驗

NAS100:偏空技術形態考驗反彈力度

儘管今日出現反彈,但在近期破位後,納斯達克 100 指數的技術面仍偏向短期下行壓力。

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

在 4 小時圖上,該指數近期跌破了高點不斷降低的收斂下降三角形形態。此外,4 小時 EMA 均線系統的看空交叉依然有效。短期走勢將測試 29,000 – 29,300 阻力區域以及 4 小時 EMA 均線。

即將公布的財報將決定本次反彈是演變成真正的趨勢修復,還是再次屈服於拋售壓力——特別是如果財報發布後的前瞻指引加劇了市場對 AI 資本支出的擔憂。

SP500:在 7,500 支撐上方維持盤整

標普 500 指數已收復關鍵的 7,500 關口,但整體趨勢仍處於盤整階段。

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

與納斯達克 100 指數類似,本週密集的公司財報將直接考驗這一基準指數。從技術角度來看,7,500 依然是核心的關鍵邊界:

  • 看跌情景: 若有效跌破 7,500 支撐線,將預示着更深層次的技术性回調。
  • 看漲情景: 穩固守住 7,500 上方將維持溫和的上行偏向,但目前階段的短線漲幅似乎受制於上方 7,590 的阻力牆。

技術要點總結: 整體而言,美股指數的上行空間在技術面上仍受到壓制,顯示出多頭可能正在退場觀望。市場目前寄希望於企業財報來提振投資者信心,在此期間建議保持謹慎態度。

避險需求推動黃金反彈

黃金:下降三角形突破,目標回踩測試 $4,100

現貨黃金昨日錄得強勁漲幅,自此前 $4,000 附近的低位大幅反彈。這一輪反彈主要是由避險需求以及對 $4,000 結構性支撐地板的堅守所推動。

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

技術面上,黃金已成功突破近期的下降三角形,並攻克了 $4,000 – $4,100 的區間矩形,使得短期前景相當樂觀。接下來需密切觀察金價是否對 $4,100 的突破口進行技術性回踩測試。

只要價格穩穩守護在這一新轉化的支撐區域上方,短期偏向依然是「逢低買入」。若能在該位置上方穩固築底,將打開通往 $4,200 關口的上行空間。

市場總結與今日關注焦點

隨着 AI 敘事的強勢與半導體出口數據的強勁為股市提供支撐,全球市場迎來反彈;與此同時,持續的中東風險觸發了黃金的避險需求,並推動美元兌日圓突破 163.00 創下 40 年新低。市場接下來的走向將完全取決於今日的科技股財報能否果斷提振市場情緒。

今日重點關注:

  • 巨型科技股財報與 AI 資本支出: 來自 Alphabet、特斯拉和 IBM 的業績報告領銜 77 家標普 500 成分股公司的季報浪潮。管理層對 AI 資本支出的表態將作為股市走向的核心催化劑。
  • 黃金回踩測試 $4,100: 在成功實現下降三角形突破並攻克 $4,050 與 $4,100 之後,密切觀察黃金能否將 $4,100 轉化為新支撐,以確認向更高目標延伸的趨勢。

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