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非美通脹、數據與科技股財報主導本週市場

Ultima Markets 每週市場展望與分析 – 2026年10月19日至23日

科技股回調引發避險情緒,資金輪動至防禦與能源板塊

受AI及科技板塊大幅回調影響,全球金融市場在上週進入謹慎的避險模式。然而,資金向防禦與能源板塊的輪動推動道瓊斯工業平均指數逆勢收漲0.67%。匯市與債市方面,高企的能源價格與粘性通脹壓力主導走勢,避險需求推動美國10年期國債收益率回落至5.09%,而美元指數則在101.60至101.70區間維持窄幅盤整。

上週市場走勢主要由美國通脹與經濟數據驅動,而本週市場焦點將全面轉向非美地區的通脹數據、科技巨頭財報以及全球PMI數據。

本週前瞻:核心宏觀展望與企業財報

1. 非美通脹數據:加拿大、英國與日本CPI

非美地區的通脹數據將成為本週央行政策預期的主要催化劑。加拿大、英國和日本將相繼公布消費者物價指數(CPI),揭示高企的能源成本是否正在全球範圍內引發二次通脹風險。若英國與日本通脹數據超預期上行,可能強化市場對英格蘭銀行及日本央行的升息預期,進而影響區域國債收益率及相關貨幣對。

2. 科技板塊財報:特斯拉、IBM與西部數據 —— 週四

特斯拉、IBM和西部數據將於週四公布第三季度財報,這將成為檢驗科技板塊盈利增速能否支撐當前高估值的關鍵試金石。鑑於特斯拉季度交付量超預期且投資者對其AI業務寄予厚望,若毛利率不及預期或業績指引偏謹慎,可能加大納斯達克100及標普500指數的下行壓力。

3. 全球PMI初值:歐元區、英國與美國 —— 週五

週五公布的歐元區、英國及美國10月PMI初值,將評估在高能源成本壓力下全球主要經濟體的增長韌性。此前美國經濟表現持續優於歐洲,而歐元區通脹依然高企、英國增長相對疲軟。若美國PMI維持強勁擴張而歐洲數據繼續惡化,貨幣政策預期的分化可能進一步拉大,從而為美元兌歐元和英鎊提供結構性支撐。

每週技術展望:美元、黃金與美股

美元指數:在101.25 – 101.50核心支撐走廊附近盤整

如前所述,從此前102.90的高點衝高回落後,美元指數繼續在低位震盪。目前美元指數處於盤整修正階段,而非結構性趨勢反轉,正在測試關鍵支撐區。

USDX,4小時圖 | Ultima Markets 交易平台

技術面上,101.25 – 101.50區域為此前強調的核心支撐地板。若有效跌破101.50關口,美元指數下行回調空間將延伸至100.80支撐位。反之,若穩守101.50上方,將維持整體盤整格局,保留向102.20區域反彈的動能。因此,本週預計美元上行空間受限,市場焦點在於美元能否守住看漲盤整格局,抑或陷入深度回調。

現貨黃金:避險買盤支撐,測試4,150 – 4,200美元突破區

儘管上週經歷週中急跌及快速回升,受美債收益率下行及市場避險需求提振,黃金價格繼續獲得良好支撐。

XAUUSD,4小時圖 | Ultima Markets 交易平台

技術面上,黃金正處於4,150 – 4,200美元關鍵阻力區附近蓄勢。若能有效突破4,200美元,將確認看漲反轉,打開下探4,250及4,300美元的空間。然而,若買方未能攻克4,200美元,黃金可能繼續維持在既定盤整區間內,下方直接支撐位於4,120美元。

美股(標普500與納斯達克100):板塊輪動考驗看漲結構

隨者科技股走弱促使資金流向防禦性板塊,美股三大股指短線面臨下行逆風。

NAS100,4小時圖 | Ultima Markets 交易平台

SP500,4小時圖 | Ultima Markets 交易平台

技術面上,受上週科技股回調影響,標普500與納斯達克100指數均在測試近線技術支撐位:

  • 標普500指數: 結構性支撐位堅守在7,700點。若跌破該支撐,可能引發向7,600點的深度盤整。唯有跌破7,600 – 7,800點盤整區間,才預示美股可能迎來熊市風險。
  • 納斯達克100指數: 在失守30,000點關口後,核心支撐維持在29,000 – 29,300點區域。企穩於當前支撐上方可維持主上升趨勢,而日線收於該位下方則預示著在週四重磅科技財報公布前獲利了結盤可能加速湧現。

每週市場總結與要點回顧

本週市場主線將由美國巨觀數據轉向非美通脹指標、科技巨頭財報以及全球PMI初值。

簡單來說,交易員應重點觀察美元指數能否守住101.25 – 101.50支撐地板,黃金能否有效突破4,200美元大關,以及特斯拉與IBM財報能否穩定科技板塊情緒並守住美股關鍵支撐(標普500在7,700點,納斯達克100在29,000 – 29,300點)。

本週關注焦點:

  • 非美CPI數據(加拿大、英國、日本): 追蹤區域通脹指標,獲取央行政策路徑線索。
  • 科技股Q3財報(特斯拉與IBM —— 週四): 關注毛利率及AI業務指引對股市的衝擊。
  • 全球PMI初值(週五): 評估美國與歐英經濟體之間的增長分化。
  • 美元指數支撐位(101.25 – 101.50): 觀察美元指數是穩守101.50,還是跌破下探100.80。
  • 現貨黃金阻力區(4,150 – 4,200美元): 觀察收益率走低能否推動黃金向上突破4,200美元。
  • 美股關鍵支撐位(標普500 7,700點 / 納斯達克100 29,000 – 29,300點): 密切關注科技財報公布前股指對核心支撐位的檢驗。

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