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市場消化PCE通膨數據;科技股走勢分化

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年6月26日

PCE數據後:聯準會升息逆風

隨著投資者繼續消化美國「高熱」的通膨數據,美股市場呈現震盪走勢。頑固的通膨已坐實了市場對聯準會即將升息的預期,導致市場情緒保持謹慎。

  • 美國 5 月份整體 PCE 物價指數同比上漲 4.1%,與市場預期持平;
  • 核心 PCE 物價指數也如預期般升至 3.4%。

這表明能源驅動的通膨壓力正逐漸傳導至基礎價格。受此數據影響,期貨市場目前依然堅定地為 9 月升息進行定價。

市場影響:數據公布後,美元因「買預期,賣事實」的獲利盤回吐而短線承壓。與此同時,美股市場呈現明顯的分化:科技股重鎮納斯達克 100 指數攜手標普 500 領跌盤面;而道瓊工業指數則展現出極強韌性,成功逆勢收漲。

預計 PCE 數據的餘震仍將持續,美股板塊輪動或將繼續上演。

納斯達克 100 與標普 500 展望

市場前景維持謹慎且複雜。預計標普 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數將步入修正階段,大週期趨勢上可能進入一段震盪盤整期。

標普 500 指數分析

S&P500, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

S&P500, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

正如我們早前所覆蓋的,近期圖表走勢顯示,上行勢能有所減弱,尤其是在跌破 7,500 點後。

目前市場試圖測試 7,350 的短線支撐,若跌破恐將進一步向 7,240 靠近。從技術角度看,短線趨勢正處於下行區間,符合調整浪和盤整的邏輯。

納斯達克 100 指數分析

納指表現同樣如此,且一直是本次回調的領跌者。從技術視角看,隨著指數跌破 30,000 點大關,我們預計短線仍將維持偏弱下行。

NAS100, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets

NAS100, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets

下一個主要支撐位位於 28,700 – 28,400 區域。預計日內下行壓力將延續,指數本週或將以陰線收官。

閱讀納斯達克 100 指數分析

黃金:反彈受限,下行壓力猶存

得益於美元的回調,黃金出現短暫反彈,但目前仍持續受壓於 4,050 美元關口下方。金價正繼續在 4,000 美元關口附近展開拉鋸。

XAUUSD, 1小時圖表 | Ultima Markets

XAUUSD, 1小時圖表 | Ultima Markets

無論是從技術還是基本面來看,黃金的整體偏向依然看跌。

技術上,任何維持在 4,050 – 4,100 美元下方的走勢均被視為弱勢,且面臨再次測試 3,960 美元的風險。宏觀上,聯準會升息預期、殖利率攀升以及美元走強都在壓制金價的上行空間。

市場總結

目前全球金融市場正籠罩在「利率長期維持高位」的敘事中,5 月份 4.1% 的核心通膨數據加劇了市場的擔憂。雖然該數據在公布初期引發了美元的小幅回落,但卻加劇了美股市場內部的分化。隨著投資者從高估值的成長型資產中撤出,大型科技股正承受沉重的價格重估壓力,而道瓊工業指數則繼續吸引防禦性資金。

建議投資者為接下來的高波動行情做好準備,市場正處於板塊輪動的敏感期,並需不斷消化 9 月聯準會升息帶來的現實衝擊。

今日關注焦點

  • PCE 余震:密切關注科技股(納指)與價值股(道指)之間的分化趨勢是否會進一步擴大,或道指的防禦性買盤是否出現疲態。
  • 殖利率與板塊輪動:留意美債殖利率動向;若殖利率持續走高,將繼續對黃金及高成長科技股構成壓力。

免責聲明

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