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美聯儲引領超級央行周

本周宏觀基本面將迎來“超級央行周”的密集考驗。美聯儲、英國央行、瑞士央行、日本央行及澳洲聯儲將集中公佈利率決議。美聯儲新任主席沃什將首次主持FOMC會議。在新任主席的政策立場、二次通脹的現實以及非美央行的緊縮博弈下，各大類資產正處於極度劇烈的重新定價前夜。

美國6月紐約聯儲製造業指數

週一公佈的紐約聯儲製造業指數是本周宏觀大戲的序幕。若工廠端投入成本出現爆炸性增長，將直接坐實滯脹風險。這種微觀層面的通脹惡化，屆時將推高美債收益率並支撐美元。

日本央行利率決議

週二是亞太市場的生死局。油價飆升導致高度依賴能源進口的日本貿易條件急劇惡化，日元面臨極大的貶值壓力。市場關注日央行是否將在此次會議上，給出實質性的緊縮指引，如縮減國債購買規模或暗示連續加息。

美國5月零售銷售月率

週三的零售銷售數據是對美國“消費引擎”在通脹反撲下的極限壓力測試。當前美國整體通脹率已受能源拖累大幅反彈，若零售數據依然異常強勁，表明居民消費尚未被高物價壓垮。這種經濟韌性將徹底摧毀華爾街對年內降息的殘存幻想，導致固定收益市場將寬鬆預期徹底出清，進而維持美元指數的絕對強勢。

美聯儲利率決議

週四美聯儲將公佈最新利率決議，市場普遍預期基準利率將維持在3.50%-3.75%不變。投資者重點關注新任主席沃什的溝通框架改革。若沃什如市場預期淡化點陣圖的前瞻指引，並展現出捍衛央行獨立性以抗擊通脹的決心，美元將獲得提振。反之，若其措辭顯露出向政治施壓妥協的鴿派傾向，美元將遭遇拋售。

日本5月核心CPI年率

週五的日本將公佈核心物價數據。在日央行決議落地後，該數據將直接驗證其緊縮政策的急迫性。機構普遍關注，由高油價和弱日元引發的輸入型通脹，是否已深度傳染至國內服務業及核心消費端。

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