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黃金失長線支撐,技術面已遭重創

今日Ultima Markets 為您帶來了 2026年6月25日的XAUUSD深入分析

XAUUSD 技術分析

XAUUSD 日線圖表分析

(XAUUSD 日線圖,來源Ultima Markets MT5)

  • 所有技術面發展中,最具份量的莫過於價格在強勁下行動能驅動下,對長期移動平均線的決定性跌破。鑑於該線歷史上長期扮演關鍵動態支撐的角色,此次跌破標誌著市場結構的重要拐點——由牛轉熊格局。
  • 關鍵價位:價格正在測試具有重要心理意義的4000關口,初始支撐位於3950.00至3997.31區間,是2025年10月那波大幅上漲行情的起點。下方3875.00一線在前期牛市初期曾作為重要跳板支撐,而更深處的3790.00則是當時突破行情的原始起點。上方阻力方面,首個關鍵壓制區為4213.50至4250.00,對應2026年5月底至6月初的前期波段低點,且與已跌破的長期移動平均線下軌高度吻合,在任何反彈行情中均可能形成阻力。再往上,4382.60至4467.00是5月形成的低點反彈整理壓力區,而4636.00則是重要結構性阻力位,與中期移動平均線形成共振。

XAUUSD 2小時圖表分析

(XAUUSD 2小時圖,來源Ultima Markets MT5)

  • 2小時框架印證更高級別的下跌趨勢,價格明確呈現底底低。近期賣壓有所暫歇,價格在低位緊密整理,形態上類似熊旗或三角收斂——此類形態傾向下延續,但短期指標顯示在新一波下跌展開前,仍存在短暫反彈的空間。
  • 突破情境:阻力最小的方向依然朝南,若兩小時K線收低3975.00,確認主要下跌趨勢的延續,交易者可能以3950.00及更低位置為目標。多頭若要在日內取得任何立足點,價格須先突破並收於快速均線及4055.00結構性阻力上——若隨機指標同步回升提供支撐,則有望觸發一波逆勢反彈,目標指向4155.00。然而,鑑於目前各均線全面呈現空頭排列,在更高高點明確確立前,任何上行走勢均應視為熊市中的短暫回調,逢反彈高點賣出依然是當前主流的順勢交易策略。

XAUUSD 樞紐線指標

(XAUUSD 30分鐘圖,來源Ultima Markets MT5)

  • 價格在熊市形態中緊密盤整,交易者應等待短期區間大約3980至4020出現確認信號後,再決定下一步行動。鑑於隨機指標向下轉頭,疊加強勢宏觀下跌趨勢的背景,留意下行跌破。
  • 看空跌破:綜合整體下跌趨勢與熊旗形態,向下跌破仍是較高概率的結果。若30分鐘K線收低3980.00,再摜破3969.20低點,確認趨勢延續,目標指向3950.00及更低位置。
  • 看多突破:多頭若要在日內取得任何主導權,價格須收復4020.00,此舉可能引發軋空或更深幅度的回彈,目標區間為4043.00至4056.00。然而,在此類突破中建立的任何多頭倉位,均應嚴格視為逆勢短線交易,因為下行的黑色與綠色移動平均線可能形成沉重的動態阻力,令持續性上行走勢難以為繼。

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