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收益率回落與加息預期降溫,美股再創新高

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年8月5日

收益率走低與通脹擔憂緩解燃料市場大漲

華爾街在週二加速了 8 月的上漲勢頭,主要基準股指紛紛創下歷史新高。在今天稍晚將公布高影響力的美國經濟數據前,強勁的公司財報與能源價格的回落為市場風險偏好帶來了雙重提振。

通脹擔憂的消退與能源成本的降低使交易員進一步削減對聯準會激進緊縮的押注:

  • 聯準會利率期貨削減 9 月加息押注: 根據 CME FedWatch 工具,市場定價 9 月會議上維持利率不變的機率上升至 41.1%。
  • 美國國債收益率下滑: 美國 10 年期國債收益率回落至 4.615%,對政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率降至 4.19%。

基準收益率的持續回落繼續對美元構成沈重壓力,同時提振了風險資產,直接推動了股市創紀錄的上漲。

巨觀焦點現轉向今晚的美國 ADP 私人就業報告,以及 S&P Global 服務業 PMI 和 ISM 非製造業 PMI,最終將在週五關鍵的非農就業(NFP)報告中達到高潮。就目前而言,金融市場在這些重磅數據催化劑落地前繼續在強勁樂觀情緒的引導下運行。

外匯市場展望:歐元/美元 & 澳元/美元

由於收益率下滑和加息押注回吐,美元預計將繼續承壓,主要貨幣對已準備好擴大近期漲幅。歐元/美元和澳元/美元均展現出清晰的看漲機會。

歐元/美元:看漲反轉預示趨勢延續

在果斷突破近期盤整區間後,歐元/美元確認了看漲結構反轉。當前的主流市場策略仍集中於逢回調買入。

EURUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

核心支撐帶: 1.1460 為主要結構性支撐地板,而 1.1500 充當即時心理與技術支撐區,逢低買盤可能會在此處湧現。

只要價格走勢在回調中守住這些關鍵支撐區域上方,阻力最小的路向仍偏向於向更高阻力目標看漲延伸。

澳元/美元:重新收復 0.7000 關鍵心理關口

與歐元的強勁勢頭呼應,澳元/美元迎來強勁看漲拉升,成功重新收復 0.7000 核心關口。

AUDUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

核心支撐地板: 0.7000 心理關口在向上突破後已轉化為主要結構性支撐地板。

守住 0.7000 上方鞏固了短期看漲動能,使該匯率在美元整體走弱的背景下具備進一步看漲延續的條件,下一個主要目標位於 0.7100 心理阻力關口下方。

大宗商品市場展望

黃金(XAU/USD):收益率下滑引發即刻技術破位

美債收益率走低與美元走弱繼續為黃金提供有利的基本面順風,價格走勢在關鍵阻力位附近緊密收斂。

XAUUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

從技術面來看,黃金一直在收斂的下行三角形形態內的阻力位下方蓄勢,預示著即刻將迎來波動率突破。

在週三的早盤交易中,黃金展現出突破 $4,100 關口及上方下行趨勢線的早期看漲突破訊號。H2 或 H4 圖表上的堅實收盤價將為持續的看漲突破提供技術確認。

實際收益率的下滑繼續提升無息黃金的吸引力,在市場參與者等待即將到來的經濟數據催化劑之際,增加了向上突破的機率。

市場總結與今日關注焦點

全球市場在週三處於歷史高位附近交投,受美債收益率下滑、加息預期降溫以及外匯和商品市場強勁風險偏好的推動。

今日重點關注:

  • 美國巨觀數據發布: 關注 ADP 私人就業數據、S&P Global 服務業 PMI 和 ISM 非製造業 PMI 以尋找最新經濟催化劑。
  • 歐元/美元 1.1500 即時支撐: 觀察買方能否在回調中守住 1.1500 以維持看漲反轉態勢。
  • 澳元/美元 0.7000 支撐地板: 跟蹤 AUD/USD 是否維持在 0.7000 上方,以驗證向 0.7100 方向的近期看漲延續。
  • 黃金 $4,100 上方突破訊號: 密切關注 XAU/USD 在 H2/H4 圖表上是否能確認收於 $4,100 上方,以驗證三角形突破。

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本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考,旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢,並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性,但不能保證資料的絕對准確性,並可能隨時更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損(包括但不限于利潤損失)不承擔責任。

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