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Pada Jumaat lalu, 4 Ogos, data Non-Farm Payrolls Amerika Syarikat sekali lagi mencatat angka di bawah jangkaan untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut. Berdasarkan laporan U.S. Department of Labor, jumlah pekerjaan bukan pertanian yang diselaraskan secara bermusim meningkat sebanyak 187,000 pada Julai, iaitu jumlah penambahan pekerjaan terendah sejak Disember 2020, berbanding jangkaan pasaran sekitar 200,000.
Sebelum ini, data penambahan pekerjaan bagi bulan Mei dan Jun turut disemak semula ke bawah. Angka bagi Mei diturunkan daripada 339,000 kepada 306,000, manakala Jun disemak kepada 185,000. Perlu diperhatikan bahawa data ADP, yang sering dianggap sebagai penunjuk awal kepada NFP, turut menunjukkan trend penurunan pada Ogos kali ini dan tidak lagi bergerak bertentangan dengan data NFP seperti yang berlaku sebelum ini. Percanggahan data pada dua bulan lalu telah mengurangkan kebolehpercayaan ADP sebagai rujukan utama.
(Lajur biru berbanding garis hitam: Non-Farm Payrolls vs ADP)
Di sebalik kelembapan pertumbuhan pekerjaan, kadar pengangguran menurun kepada 3.5% daripada 3.6% pada Jun. Pada masa yang sama, purata gaji sejam terus mencatatkan pertumbuhan stabil pada Julai, meningkat 4.4% tahun ke tahun, melebihi jangkaan pasaran sebanyak 4.2%. Kenaikan gaji ini mungkin bukan perkembangan yang diharapkan oleh Federal Reserve (Fed), memandangkan sasaran inflasi jangka panjang mereka adalah 2%.
Menurut Elon, penganalisis dari Ultima Markets Investment Research Group,
“Secara keseluruhan, dasar pengetatan monetari Fed mula memberi kesan kepada pasaran buruh. Penurunan jumlah pekerjaan baharu untuk dua bulan berturut-turut menandakan permulaan penyejukan pasaran pekerjaan. Oleh itu, jangkaan pasaran terhadap kenaikan kadar faedah pada September tidak berubah dengan ketara.”
(Kebarangkalian Fed tidak menaikkan kadar faedah kekal hampir 90%, sumber: Fed Interest Rate Observation Tool)
Emas dan mata wang selain dolar AS secara umumnya mendapat manfaat daripada jangkaan bahawa Fed akan mengekalkan kadar faedah. Tumpuan pasaran kini beralih kepada data inflasi minggu ini. Pada bulan lalu, kadar inflasi kembali ke paras 3%. Sekiranya inflasi terus menunjukkan trend penurunan, dolar AS dijangka menghadapi tekanan lanjut.
(Kadar CPI sepanjang setahun lalu)
Dari sudut teknikal, euro berjaya mendapatkan sokongan kukuh berhampiran paras 1.09, dan kembali bergerak di atas purata bergerak (moving average) 65 hari serta purata bergerak 5 hari. Indikator Stochastic Oscillator turut membentuk isyarat golden cross, yang mencadangkan momentum bullish masih wujud. Sekiranya euro berjaya menembusi paras tertinggi minggu lalu, pasangan EUR/USD dijangka menyambung semula trend kenaikan.
(Carta harian EUR/USD, Ultima Markets MT4)
Penafian: Maklumat yang disediakan di sini adalah semata-mata untuk tujuan penyampaian maklumat dan tidak merupakan, serta tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai, nasihat kewangan, pelaburan, undang-undang, atau nasihat profesional lain dalam apa jua bentuk. Sebarang kenyataan atau pandangan yang terkandung dalam dokumen ini tidak boleh dianggap sebagai cadangan atau saranan oleh Ultima Markets atau mana-mana pihak yang berkaitan terhadap sebarang produk pelaburan, strategi, atau transaksi tertentu. Para pembaca dinasihatkan agar tidak bergantung sepenuhnya kepada kandungan ini dalam membuat sebarang keputusan pelaburan dan digalakkan untuk mendapatkan nasihat bebas yang sewajarnya daripada penasihat kewangan bertauliah.
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