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Analisis Emas: Sokongan Kuat Dorong Lantunan Harga
Analisis Emas: Sokongan Kuat Dorong Lantunan Harga
Analisis Emas: Sokongan Kuat Dorong Lantunan Harga
Fokus: Emas
Dari sudut fundamental, Amerika Syarikat melaporkan data jualan runcit bagi bulan Julai meningkat 0.7% bulan ke bulan (MoM). Data bagi bulan Jun turut disemak naik kepada 0.3% daripada 0.2%, menandakan ekonomi AS terus berkembang memasuki suku ketiga (3Q) dan berpotensi mengelakkan kemelesetan.
Keadaan ini menunjukkan tekanan inflasi berkemungkinan kekal stabil dalam jangka pendek. Dengan permintaan pengguna yang masih kukuh serta pasaran buruh yang terus mengetat, usaha Federal Reserve (Fed) untuk mengekang inflasi menjadi semakin mencabar. Dalam persekitaran ini, kami berpendapat harga emas berpotensi untuk mencatat lantunan.
Dari sudut teknikal, carta harian emas kini menghampiri zon sokongan utama, iaitu purata bergerak 240 hari.
(Carta harian emas, Ultima Markets MT4)
Purata bergerak 240 hari telah berfungsi sebagai kawasan sokongan penting bagi emas sejak tahun 2022. Sepanjang minggu lalu, harga emas bergerak secara mendatar dengan turun naik kecil di zon sokongan ini. Walau bagaimanapun, indikator Stochastic Oscillator telah membentuk isyarat golden cross pada hari sebelumnya.
(Carta 1 jam emas, Ultima Markets MT4)
Pada rangka masa 1 jam, harga emas kembali menurun selepas menguji purata bergerak 65-period semalam, namun gagal menembusi paras terendah sebelumnya. Melihat kepada struktur keseluruhan pergerakan harga, terdapat kebarangkalian bahawa emas sedang membentuk struktur dasar (bottoming structure). Selepas harga berjaya menembusi zon rintangan terdahulu, pelabur disarankan untuk mengesahkan penembusan tersebut melalui indikator gabungan ATR.
(Carta 1 jam emas, Ultima Markets MT4)
Berdasarkan pivot indicator pada platform Ultima Markets MT4, paras harga tengah berada pada 1902.54.
Bullish di atas 1902.54
Sasaran pertama: 1909.10
Sasaran kedua: 1917.99
Bearish di bawah 1902.54
Sasaran kedua: 1887.37
Sasaran pertama: 1893.94
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