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Dari sudut fundamental, Bank of England (BoE) dan Federal Reserve (Fed) kini berada dalam situasi persaingan dasar yang jelas, dan inilah faktor utama yang mempengaruhi pergerakan kadar pertukaran antara kedua-dua mata wang. Pertama, hala tuju sebenar dasar pengetatan BoE masih belum benar-benar jelas, manakala kitaran kenaikan kadar faedah Fed dilihat telah sampai ke penghujungnya. Kedua, walaupun kebarangkalian Fed untuk menaikkan kadar faedah lagi pada 2023 semakin rendah, sebarang data ekonomi AS yang positif masih berpotensi mencetuskan tindakan Fed semula, sekali gus menyokong pengukuhan dolar AS.
Menjelang mesyuarat MPC BoE serta data US Nonfarm Payrolls yang akan dikeluarkan minggu ini, pergerakan GBP/USD dalam jangka pendek banyak dipengaruhi oleh sentimen pasaran. Oleh itu, sebarang penembusan teknikal perlu diberi perhatian rapi.
Dari sudut teknikal, carta harian GBP/USD kini hampir menghampiri MA 65 hari, manakala Stochastic Oscillator telah memasuki zon oversold.
(Carta harian GBP/USD, Ultima Markets MT4)
Masih terlalu awal untuk menyimpulkan bahawa tekanan bearish terhadap pound telah berakhir, justeru kewaspadaan tetap diperlukan.
(Carta 4 jam GBP/USD, Ultima Markets MT4)
Pada rangka masa 4 jam, kadar pertukaran telah jatuh menghampiri garisan trend menaik, sementara Stochastic Oscillator menunjukkan isyarat divergence. Keadaan ini membuka ruang kepada kemungkinan lantunan jangka pendek.
(Carta 1 jam GBP/USD, Ultima Markets MT4)
Pada rangka masa 1 jam, price action membentuk corak Wolfe Wave yang jelas. Point 3 berada di bawah point 1, point 4 membuat pembetulan ke dalam julat harga antara point 2 dan point 3, manakala point 5 melantun ke atas selepas harga jatuh ke garisan yang menghubungkan point 1 dan point 3. Dalam jangka pendek, GBP/USD mempunyai kebarangkalian untuk mencatat lantunan. Sasaran pertama dilihat pada paras point 4, manakala sasaran kedua berada pada garisan yang menghubungkan point 1 dan point 4.
(Carta 1 jam GBP/USD, Ultima Markets MT4)
Berdasarkan pivot indicator pada platform Ultima Markets MT4, paras harga tengah berada pada 1.27864.
Bullish di atas 1.27864
Sasaran pertama: 1.28311
Sasaran kedua: 1.28866
Bearish di bawah 1.27864
Sasaran pertama: 1.27314
Sasaran kedua: 1.26863
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