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Bagi mengekang tekanan inflasi, Bank of England (BoE) telah membuat langkah ke-14 berturut-turut dengan menaikkan kadar faedah sebanyak 25 basis points (bps), menjadikan kadar faedah semasa berada pada paras 5.25%, iaitu tahap tertinggi sejak 2008.
(Kadar faedah UK sepanjang 25 tahun lalu)
(Taklimat BoE – Ogos)
Rentetan kenaikan kadar faedah sebanyak 25 bps secara berterusan ini telah mengurangkan keyakinan pasaran terhadap potensi kenaikan selanjutnya. Anggaran kadar faedah terminal kini disemak turun daripada 5.74% kepada sekitar 5.68%, sekali gus memberi tekanan kepada nilai pound sterling. Walau bagaimanapun, BoE terus menegaskan bahawa ekonomi Britain tidak akan memasuki fasa kemelesetan.
BoE turut menyemak naik unjuran pertumbuhan KDNK UK bagi 2023 daripada 0.25% kepada 0.5% dalam kemas kini terdahulu pada bulan Mei, mencerminkan pandangan yang lebih optimistik terhadap daya tahan ekonomi.
Kadar faedah yang tinggi bermakna kos pinjaman menjadi semakin mahal, sekali gus memberi tekanan kepada peminjam gadai janji. Penyewa juga tidak terkecuali daripada kesan ini apabila pemilik hartanah memindahkan sebahagian kos tambahan kepada mereka. Pada masa ini, kadar purata gadai janji dua tahun di UK hampir mencecah 7%. Keadaan ekonomi sebenar pada masa hadapan masih perlu dinilai berdasarkan data yang akan datang.
(Carta 4 jam GBP/USD)
Dari sudut teknikal, pasangan GBP/USD menunjukkan ruang untuk bergerak lebih tinggi selepas kenaikan kadar faedah. Pada rangka masa 4 jam, pergerakan harga membentuk corak Wolfe Wave yang jelas. Titik 3 berada di bawah titik 1, titik 4 berundur ke dalam julat antara titik 2 dan titik 3, manakala titik 5 melantun ke atas selepas harga jatuh ke garisan yang menghubungkan titik 1 dan titik 3.
Dalam jangka pendek, GBP/USD mempunyai kebarangkalian untuk mencatat lantunan. Sasaran awal dilihat pada titik 4, manakala sasaran seterusnya ialah garisan yang menghubungkan titik 1 dan titik 4.
Penafian: Maklumat yang disediakan di sini adalah semata-mata untuk tujuan penyampaian maklumat dan tidak merupakan, serta tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai, nasihat kewangan, pelaburan, undang-undang, atau nasihat profesional lain dalam apa jua bentuk. Sebarang kenyataan atau pandangan yang terkandung dalam dokumen ini tidak boleh dianggap sebagai cadangan atau saranan oleh Ultima Markets atau mana-mana pihak yang berkaitan terhadap sebarang produk pelaburan, strategi, atau transaksi tertentu. Para pembaca dinasihatkan agar tidak bergantung sepenuhnya kepada kandungan ini dalam membuat sebarang keputusan pelaburan dan digalakkan untuk mendapatkan nasihat bebas yang sewajarnya daripada penasihat kewangan bertauliah.
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