Ceasefire Sparks Market Relief, But Oil Risk Lingers

After nearly two weeks of intense strike-and-retaliation, U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire, reportedly brokered by the U.S. with Qatar’s mediation. Iran has confirmed its commitment to the truce, while Israel acknowledged carrying out a radar strike near Tehran—reportedly executed just after the agreement—but stated it would halt further operations following U.S. intervention.

While the ceasefire has provided short-term relief, it remains fragile. No formal diplomatic resolution has been reached, and the underlying tensions between the two sides remain unresolved.

Still, global equities rallied as geopolitical risk premium eased, while safe-haven assets like oil and gold saw further pullbacks.

Geopolitical Relief Sparks Broad Market Rebound

The ceasefire announcement sparked a broad risk-on move across global markets. Equities in Europe and the U.S. posted strong gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both climbing sharply. Asia-Pacific markets also stabilized following days of heightened volatility.

In the currency space, the U.S. Dollar weakened further, while risk-sensitive currencies rebounded. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen remained supported due to lingering geopolitical concerns.

Gold, which had tested record highs amid intense safe-haven demand, softened as tensions eased—settling around the $3,300 per ounce support level.

Ceasefire Still Fragile, Volatility Risks Remain

Despite the apparent breakthrough, the ceasefire remains delicate. U.S. intelligence reports suggest sporadic low-level hostilities continue, including drone surveillance and cyberattacks. President Trump himself warned of “multiple ceasefire violations” and urged both sides to fully commit to de-escalation.

With no formal peace agreement in place, the risk of renewed conflict remains elevated. Markets are likely to remain sensitive to any developments that could undermine the fragile truce.

Oil Retreats, But Supply Risk Still in Focus

Crude oil prices retreated sharply from recent five-month highs following the ceasefire news. Brent crude fell below $68 per barrel, while WTI traded near $66, as traders unwound the war risk premium priced in over recent sessions.

Still, the underlying supply risks remain in focus. Iranian-backed militias and Israeli defense forces remain on alert, and any new provocations—particularly near key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz—could quickly reignite volatility.

“While the truce eases immediate fears, oil markets are unlikely to fully discount the geopolitical premium until we see a durable de-escalation,” said Shawn Lee, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets.

WTI Crude Outlook

WTI crude saw a sharp two-day pullback, with prices finding support near the key $66 per barrel level—a zone that has consistently acted as major support since 2021. This level remains technically significant, and its ability to hold could offer short-term stabilization for oil prices.

USOUSD(WTI), Daily Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, as long as WTI maintains above this support, a near-term rebound remains possible. However, a decisive break below $66 could expose the market to deeper downside.

With geopolitical tensions easing but still unresolved, traders should remain cautious, as any renewed escalation or supply disruption could trigger sharp moves above the psychological level.

Brent Crude Outlook

UKOUSD (Brent), Daily Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Brent crude briefly broke below the $70 mark following the ceasefire announcement, with prices retreating toward the $67 level—another key technical support that has consistently held since 2021.

With geopolitical risks still lingering and no firm diplomatic resolution in place, volatility remains in play, and traders should stay alert for any renewed escalation that could reprice geopolitical premiums back into the market.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.