EURUSD Analysis: Correction Could Have Ended on Weak Dollar

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EURUSD for June 24th, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD

EURUSD Key Takeaways

• Concerns about the crude oil supply chain have subsided: US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement to end a 12-day military conflict that has severely impacted the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and caused turmoil in global markets.
• Expectations for rate cuts have risen sharply: After Fed Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in July, another Fed Governor Bowman recently pointed out that if inflationary pressures remain under control, she will support a rate cut as early as July. Risk aversion has subsided, the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in July has increased significantly, and the demand for buying the US dollar has dropped significantly. There is a probability of continued decline in the short term.

Technical Analysis of EURUSD

EURUSD Daily Chart Insights

• MA support: Throughout the rise, the purple 13EMA has provided solid dynamic support for price pullbacks many times. Prices tend to quickly regain their upward momentum after stepping back on this MA. Currently, prices are running steadily above all major EMA MAs, indicating that bulls are in control of the market.
• Upper resistance: The current price (about 1.1550-1.1600 area) is actively challenging the previous high area set in late May and early June (about 1.1600-1.1630). This is the most critical resistance level in the short term. If this area can be effectively broken through with large volume, the upward space is expected to open up further.

EURUSD 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator shows that both the %K line (blue) and the %D line (red) have penetrated into the extreme overbought area above 80, and the two lines are glued at a high level, with the %K line slightly higher than the %D line. Although this confirms the extremely strong momentum of the short-term market, it also strongly suggests that the market may face the need for technical corrections or consolidation, and the risk of chasing highs is relatively high.
• Support below: The primary support is the dynamic purple 13EMA (about 1.1550-1.1560). If the correction falls below this support, the next support area worth paying attention to is the overlap of the black 65EMA (currently about 1.1510-1.1520) and the previous consolidation platform (about 1.1520-1.1530). The green 200EMA (about 1.1470-1.1480) is the key support further down.

EURUSD Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.1560,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.1560, first target 1.1630, second target 1.1660;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.1560, first target 1.1515, second target 1.1485.

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