Week Ahead — Tariff Truce Deadline, Dollar Weakness, and U.S. Jobs Data

Weekly Market Outlook (June 30th – July 4th)

Global market sentiment improved last week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. This development triggered a pullback in oil prices from their five-month highs and lifted global equities, with U.S. indices rallying—most notably, the NASDAQ reaching a new record high.

In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar saw an early-week rebound but quickly lost momentum, with the Dollar Index falling to its lowest level since April 2022, underscoring persistent weakness and growing fiscal concerns.

Tariff Truce Deadline, Dollar Weakness, and U.S. Jobs Data

As the calendar turns to July, investor focus is shifting back toward global trade risks—particularly the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce implemented by the Trump administration. With the July 9 deadline approaching, market participants will be watching for any developments that may signal renewed U.S.–China trade tensions.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar continues to face downward pressure, recently hitting a 38-month low and slipping firmly below the key 99 mark on the Dollar Index. If upcoming U.S. economic data—especially the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)—surprises to the downside, this could accelerate dollar weakness and increase market volatility.

Despite the continued strength in equities, particularly in tech stocks, a key question lingers: is the current rally driven by genuine optimism or cautious positioning? This week’s data may offer clarity.

Key Economic Data & Events

Over the key economic data and event this week, there are several high impact data set to release this week, and among those the central bank forum and the US Non-farm payroll is amongst market focus.

1. Central Bank Forum – 1^st July

Central bank governors, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will participate in panel discussions. Remarks by Powell and other central bankers can provide insights into monetary policy stances and economic outlooks, influencing market expectations.

2. U.S. ADP Employment Changes – 2^nd July

The ADP Employment Change report provides an early look at private sector job growth in the US. Strong data can bolster expectations for the official non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. Conversely, weak data may signal economic softness.

3. US Non-Farm Payroll & Key Employment Data – 3^rd July

The Non-Farm Payrolls report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the US labor market’s health. Strong job growth and wage increases can bolster confidence in the US economy, supporting the US dollar (USD) and US bond yields. Conversely, weak data may signal economic softness potentially weaken the US Dollar further.

Key Takeaway for the Week

This week, the spotlight returns to the U.S., where markets are at a critical juncture. With U.S. stock indices hitting fresh highs and the Dollar weakening to multi-year lows, investors are increasingly sensitive to shifts in sentiment. Any surprises—particularly from employment data or trade policy development—could reshape market direction heading into July.