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  • 疑似遭受“闪击式干预”，美元/日元闪跌至161.00 关口

疑似遭受“闪击式干预”，美元/日元闪跌至161.00 关口

美元兑日元盘中遭遇断崖式下跌，在亚欧盘交接阶段，汇价从接近 162.54 的数十年高点急速飙退近 1%，最低下探至 161.15 附近。这一突如其来的反转直接终结了日元此前的连跌势头，并引发了日元空头的集体爆仓与疯狂回补。而在前一天，投机资金才刚将日元推至 1986 年以来的最低水平。

日元暴涨的背后隐藏着什么？

引发日元瞬间暴涨的核心催化剂是一则广泛流传的重磅报道。消息指出，日本财务省 官员正放弃以往提前口头警告的习惯，转而采取不预先释放信号的“埋伏闪击式”隐形干预手段，旨在精准围剿投机盘并大幅拉高做空日元的成本。

同时，美元走软进一步加剧了日元的反弹势头。美国 6 月 ADP 私人就业人数仅录得 9.8 万，远低于预期的 11.3 万。此外，美联储主席凯文·沃什表示过去一个月短期通胀预期与风险有所缓和，这在一定程度上缓解了市场对美联储近期激进加息的极端焦虑，令市场情绪有所降温。

日元接下来的动向？

在技术面上，160.90–161.00 区域目前是多空双方的关键分水岭。如果美元/日元能守住这一支撑，中期的结构性看涨趋势依然成立。

然而，由于美国独立日假期，非农就业报告 (NFP) 提前至今日（周四）重磅来袭，若就业数据再度爆冷，配合东京方面的全新隐形策略，恐引发汇价向 159.50 剧烈回撤。

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