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中东局势骤然升级，原油价格强劲反弹

由于地缘政治风险再度飙升，布伦特原油在周二大幅飙升超 5%，带动整体油价强劲反弹。就在原油价格此前刚跌回战前常态水平之际，局势的突然恶化导致地缘政治风险溢价再度疯狂积聚。尽管结构上油价仍处于战前区间附近，但本次反弹已创下近三周以来的最高交易水平。

中东局势骤然升级，原油价格强劲反弹

美国对伊朗发动空袭

  • 尽管此前双方达成了初步和平协议，但美军仍对伊朗境内目标发动了一系列针对性空袭。
  • 华盛顿方面表示，此次军事打击是对伊朗此前在霍尔木兹海峡袭击三艘商船的直接报复。
  • 伊朗官方媒体证实，该国南部地区传出多声剧烈爆炸声。
  • 伴随军事行动，美国宣布将撤销此前对伊朗原油出口临时放宽的制裁，面临再度切断其原油供应的风险。

局势的骤然升级彻底逆转了原油期货的盘中跌势，推动布伦特原油与美国西德州原油（WTI）显著冲高。避险情绪与通胀担忧同步引发美债收益率大幅飙升，美国 10 年期国债收益率升至 4.55%，2 年期国债收益率则攀升至 4.187%。

原油市场仍受消息面驱动

尽管日内反弹势头极其凶猛，但原油价格在整体大格局上依然处于战前水平附近。目前的暴涨更倾向于由短期地缘消息触发的空头回补回升，而技术面整体依然维持看跌架构。

除非看到中东局势出现进一步、持续性的剧烈恶化，否则对眼下的任何反弹都应保持高度审慎。简而言之，短期内油价将在频繁的消息面刺激下维持高剧烈波动。

免责声明 本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考，旨在帮助读者了解市场形势，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的绝对准确性，并可能随时更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损（包括但不限于利润损失）不承担责任。

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