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非农携手CPI,定调美联储上半年降息预期

本周整体交易逻辑将围绕“全球两大央行何时转向宽松”。美国ADP与服务业PMI将提前为周五的非农报告定调,而薪资增速是决定美联储降息预期的关键。欧元区CPI初值和零售数据将共同验证欧洲经济在高利率下的健康度,影响欧央行的政策节奏。

美国2月ISM制造业PMI

周一美国的2月ISM制造业PM将检验美国经济“软着陆”叙事的可持续性。市场重点关注物价和就业分项。1月该指数意外跃升至52.6%,创2022年8月以来新高,远超市场预期的48.5%。2月数据若延续强势,可能引发对制造业通胀反弹的担忧。

欧元区2月CPI年率初值

周二欧元区公布2月CPI年率数据。若核心通胀,尤其是服务业表现出黏性,将打压欧央行降息的预期,为欧元提供支撑;若延续下行趋势,则会强化欧央行鸽派立场。

美国2月ADP就业数据

周三美国公布“小非农”ADP数据。1月ADP仅新增2.2万人,远低于预期。若2月ADP就业展现韧性,将强化美联储”不急于降息”的立场;反之若数据跟随当日的ISM服务业数据一同走弱,则可能点燃降息预期。

美国2月非农就业报告

周五的非农就业报告是全周的市场终极催化剂。其中市场重点关注报告中的平均时薪增速。若薪资增长超预期火热,将粉碎市场对美联储短期内降息的乐观情绪,可能引发美元大幅走高,并打压黄金和股市。

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