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美联储引领超级央行周

本周宏观基本面将迎来“超级央行周”的密集考验。美联储、英国央行、瑞士央行、日本央行及澳洲联储将集中公布利率决议。美联储新任主席沃什将首次主持FOMC会议。在新任主席的政策立场、二次通胀的现实以及非美央行的紧缩博弈下，各大类资产正处于极度剧烈的重新定价前夜。

美国6月纽约联储制造业指数

周一公布的纽约联储制造业指数是本周宏观大戏的序幕。若工厂端投入成本出现爆炸性增长，将直接坐实滞胀风险。这种微观层面的通胀恶化，届时将推高美债收益率并支撑美元。

日本央行利率决议

周二是亚太市场的生死局。油价飙升导致高度依赖能源进口的日本贸易条件急剧恶化，日元面临极大的贬值压力。市场关注日央行是否将在此次会议上，给出实质性的紧缩指引，如缩减国债购买规模或暗示连续加息。

美国5月零售销售月率

周三美国公布5月零售销售数据，当前美国整体通胀率已受能源拖累大幅反弹，若零售数据依然异常强劲，表明居民消费尚未被高物价压垮。经济韧性将进一步打压次日美联储降息的概率。

美联储利率决议

周四美联储将公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期基准利率将维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。投资者重点关注新任主席沃什的沟通框架改革。若沃什如市场预期淡化点阵图的前瞻指引，并展现出捍卫央行独立性以抗击通胀的决心，美元将获得提振。

日本5月核心CPI年率

周五的日本将公布核心物价数据。在日央行决议落地后，该数据将直接验证其紧缩政策的急迫性。机构普遍关注，由高油价和弱日元引发的输入型通胀，是否已深度传染至国内服务业及核心消费端。

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