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政治僵局与流动性紧缩,加密市场持续承压

今日市场情绪偏向风险规避与不确定性,主要受美国政治紧张局势升级影响,随着政府停摆达到历史新高,投资者信心受到考验。

美国政府停摆——或刷新历史纪录

美国政府停摆已正式追平历史上最长纪录,自10月1日以来持续35天,仍未出现解决迹象。

据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)估计,停摆可能令第四季度GDP增速减少2%至3%。由于包括非农就业(NFP)与GDP在内的主要官方数据暂停发布,市场几乎陷入“盲飞”状态,被迫更加依赖私人部门指标,例如今日公布的ISM制造业PMI。

长期的数据真空使得美联储决策更加复杂。由于缺乏经济能见度,决策者可能倾向维持观望,这进一步增加了市场对下次利率决策的不确定性。

货币政策:“鹰派降息”后遗效应

市场仍在消化美联储近期的政策转向,此举导致全球流动性紧缩程度超出预期。

  • 鲍威尔信号:上周25个基点的降息被鲍威尔谨慎的言论所掩盖,他淡化了12月再度降息的预期。这一“鹰派降息”推动美元指数(DXY)走高,并带动短期美债收益率上升。
  • 流动性影响:随着宽松步伐放缓,全球流动性趋紧,风险资产(包括股票、新兴市场货币及加密资产)承压。
  • 市场反应:美元维持强势,接近近期高位,对主要货币保持优势,同时令黄金与其他高贝塔资产承压。

接下来市场关注什么?

今日市场焦点仍集中在美国政府停摆能否尽快结束。尽管短期内暂无突破,但部分进展仍值得留意:

  • 资金截止期限压力:国会将面临新的预算截止日期,之前提出的临时拨款法案(CR)仅能支撑政府运作至11月21日。这可能迫使双方在未来几周重新开启谈判。
  • 两党讨论迹象:有报道称温和派共和党人与民主党人正在进行非正式协商,探讨以医疗政策妥协换取重启政府的可能方案。

但在出现明确进展之前,不确定性将维持高位。若停摆持续,将进一步触发风险厌恶情绪,尤其在数据缺失与市场信心减弱的背景下。

流动性与政治不确定性拖累加密货币

在美联储“鹰派降息”与美元持续强势的背景下,加密市场整体承压。比特币(BTC)已回落至 110,000 美元下方,延续整理走势,反映风险情绪减弱。

  • 宏观阻力:市场对激进降息预期的下降使整体流动性收紧,限制了高风险资产(如加密货币)的资金流入。
  • 负相关回归:比特币与美元指数之间的负相关关系重新出现——美元每一次走强,都会对主要数字资产构成压力。
  • 市场动态:山寨币跌幅更深,以太坊(ETH)难以守住 3,800 美元关口,小型代币表现持续落后。

BTCUSD:区间突破在即?

比特币持续在 110,000–105,000 区间内整理,只要该区间支撑有效,其整体多头结构仍保持完好。

BTCUSD,日线图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5

BTCUSD,日线图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5

但若价格有效跌破 105,000,将可能引发中期看跌转向,特别是在宏观风险情绪转弱的情况下。

若能自支撑反弹,则将确认长期上行趋势,目标可能重新指向 115,000–118,000 区域。ETHUSD:下降三角形成形

以太坊价格跌破 3,900 美元,延续跌势至 3,600 区域。

ETHUSD,日线图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5

ETHUSD,日线图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5

结构上形成下降三角形形态,若向下突破,将构成典型看跌信号。若持续跌破 3,600,则可能进一步下探 3,400;若重回 4,000 上方,则有望中和当前的看跌结构。

每日市场展望

目前市场被夹在美国政府长期停摆与美联储“鹰派降息”后的不确定性之间。由于官方经济数据暂停发布,货币政策前景缺乏明确信号,投资者与决策者均在“盲区”中前行。

长期停摆削弱信心、拖累财政运作,并令短期增长前景更加黯淡。再加上全球流动性趋紧,这些因素共同支撑美元强势,同时压制风险资产,尤其是加密货币与新兴市场货币。

短期内,加密市场可能继续承压,美元若维持强势在100附近,将限制风险偏好回升。若政治僵局未有实质性突破,BTCUSD与ETHUSD或将维持震荡偏弱走势。

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