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美伊和谈受阻;市场聚焦“特习”峰会

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年5月11日

全球市场在新一周开盘之际整体表现相对平静,今日并无重大宏观经济数据公布。然而,在表面平静之下,地缘政治局势依然高度紧张。

市场情绪目前完全受到周末美伊和平谈判受挫消息的主导,同时交易员也正为本周稍晚美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的重磅会晤提前布局。

美伊和平谈判:谈判陷入僵局

上周后半段推动市场反弹的脆弱乐观情绪迅速消退。美伊和平谈判遭遇重大障碍,令市场对于短期停火的希望快速降温。

  • 伊朗官员公开将美国最新和平提案称为“美国的一厢情愿”,拒绝接受初步条件。
  • 特朗普则强硬回应,称伊朗的反提案“完全无法接受”。

这一外交僵局意味着,中东局势仍将持续成为全球市场的重要风险来源。随着双方立场持续强硬,全球投资者与能源市场情绪维持高度紧张。

风险溢价依旧存在

和平谈判停滞最直接的结果,就是关键资产类别中的地缘政治风险溢价依然存在。而原油和美元是目前最直接受影响的资产。

原油展望

对于原油(UKOUSD)而言,停火未能达成意味着霍尔木兹海峡运输风险依然存在,使能源市场继续受到地缘政治风险溢价支撑。

美伊和平谈判:谈判陷入僵局

UKOUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

因此,油价预计仍将维持结构性高位,并继续站稳于短期支撑区域上方。

技术面来看,价格此前快速回调至100附近后迅速出现V型反弹,显示该区域买盘依然强劲。短线而言,重新站上105.60–107.00区域,意味着当前区域已形成稳固支撑,多头结构暂时维持完整。

在外交进展真正获得确认,以及霍尔木兹海峡运输问题解除之前,能源市场的大幅回调空间仍将受到限制。

美元展望

与此同时,美元今日同样重新获得基本面支撑。

随着中东局势不确定性升温,避险资金重新流入美元。继上周五非农数据后美元进入整理阶段后,目前地缘政治风险再次为美元指数提供支撑。

美元展望

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

不过,交易员仍需保持谨慎。

技术面上,美元指数整体仍维持偏空至整理结构,尤其是在指数持续处于97.60–98.00区间下沿附近震荡的情况下。

短期来看,若美元指数无法重新站稳98.00上方,则不宜过度看多美元。

特-习峰会:美元兑离岸人民币成市场焦点

展望本周四与周五(5月14日至15日),市场焦点将全面转向特朗普与习近平即将举行的重要峰会。

预计双方讨论议题将涵盖伊朗冲突、全球能源市场、贸易关系,以及迅速升级的AI科技竞争等关键领域。

特-习峰会:美元兑离岸人民币成市场焦点

USDCNH, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

在外汇市场中,USD/CNH将成为此次峰会期间最受关注的货币对。

技术面来看,USD/CNH目前仍处于明显结构性下行趋势之中,6.9000–6.9400区域依然构成关键阻力。尽管整体趋势仍偏空,但交易员在峰会前需保持高度谨慎,因为重大地缘政治会议往往容易引发消息面驱动的剧烈波动。

特-习峰会:美元兑离岸人民币成市场焦点

USDCNH, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

短线方面,重点关注6.8000–6.8100区域。若价格持续处于该区域下方,则下行趋势有望延续;但若重新站上该区域,则需警惕短线反弹或波动加剧,尤其是在中美峰会期间。

与此同时,若峰会期间出现偏鹰派贸易言论或双方出现明显分歧,也可能迅速推动USD/CNH出现技术性反弹,并迫使空头回补。不过,在出现明确反转信号之前,整体趋势暂时维持不变。

市场展望总结

整体而言,本周一市场走势将更多受到地缘政治消息驱动,而非宏观经济数据影响。

随着美伊和平谈判破裂,“战争风险溢价”重新回归市场,推动油价维持高位,并为美元提供避险支撑。

随着本周推进,市场也将逐步为特朗普与习近平会晤进行提前布局,而该事件预计将为USD/CNH及全球风险资产带来巨大波动。

今日关注重点

  • 地缘政治消息:由于今日缺乏重大经济数据,美伊局势将成为市场最核心驱动因素。若停火谈判破裂后出现新的军事升级,市场可能迅速进入全面避险模式。
  • 峰会前市场布局:关注机构资金是否提前布局中国股市及USD/CNH,以反映市场对于特朗普与习近平会晤结果的预期。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

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