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非农数不及预期;资金出现大轮动

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年7月3日

就业市场降温,美联储加息预期转向

美国就业市场在 6 月遭遇重大逆风。昨日公布的非农就业报告(NFP)显示,6 月仅新增就业 5.7 万人,远低于 11.3 万人的市场共识预期。

更令人担忧的是,失业率降至 4.2%,这并非源于招聘强劲,而是因为劳动力参与率急剧下降,导致劳动力人口萎缩了 72 万,劳动力参与率跌至 61.5% 的历史低位(疫情期间除外)。

对此,期货市场已大幅下调了加息预期。根据 CME 美联储观察工具(FedWatch),9 月加息的概率已从报告前的 66% 降至约 51%。

美联储利率预期 | 来源:CME FedWatch

美联储利率预期 | 来源:CME FedWatch

这一变化标志着此前推动美元反弹的“鹰派”情绪出现了剧烈逆转。汇市与股市同步出现明显轮动。

美元分析:短期看跌反转

非农报告后,美元指数(DXY)跌破 101.00 关口;从技术面上看,趋势已转向短期看跌反转。

DXY, H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

DXY, H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

此前作为支撑的 100.80–101.00 区域现已转化为阻力区。该指数目前正瞄准 100.00 作为下一个主要支撑位。若美元持续承压且未能收复 100.80 区域,预计将进一步回调至 100.00 水平。

欧元/美元:看涨反转得到确认

正如早前分析,美元走软为欧元/美元的看涨反转铺平了道路。成功突破 1.1400–1.1430 的阻力区间确认了这一短期看涨转向。随着美元持续承压,我们预计欧元将进一步走强。

EURUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

EURUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期内,关注 1.14300 – 1.13800 的震荡区间突破(以及 1.1400 的整数关口支撑)。

如果 1.14300 的支撑位能够经受住回测考验并验证突破有效,预计欧元/美元短期内将迎来进一步的看涨反转。

黄金:$4,000 关口筑底成功

随着金价突破 $4,100 的阻力位,黄金此前对 $4,000 关口的“防卫战”宣告成功,黄金目前正测试 $4,200 区域。这可被视为看涨反转信号。

XAUUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

虽然短期前景日益看涨,但日内交易者应警惕在 $4,200 阻力位附近出现的获利回吐回调。若出现调整,$4,100 现已成为主要支撑位。

策略: 关注 $4,200 阻力位的短期回调做空机会,或在 $4,100 支撑附近企稳时寻求做多入场点。

纳斯达克 100 指数:科技股承压

非农报告引发了剧烈的板块轮动。尽管道琼斯指数创下历史新高,但以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数受挫,下跌 1.79%,原因是人工智能和半导体股票遭遇获利回吐。投资者显然正在从高增长科技股转向防御性蓝筹股。

短期内,只要纳指维持在 30,000 点下方,预计将继续面临压力。

NAS100, H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

NAS100, H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期纳指已形成收敛三角形,暗示投资者处于观望状态。尽管 30,000 点下方存在压力,但近期的收敛三角形形态也表明投资者并未真正对科技板块看空。该指数的前景仍保持谨慎看涨,交易者应密切关注区间内的短期价格波动。

市场总结

昨晚公布的美国 6 月非农就业报告大幅不及预期,非农就业人数仅录得 5.7 万,远低于 11.3 万的预期。这一疲软数据导致市场对美联储 9 月加息的预期大幅降温,FedWatch 工具显示利率维持不变的概率已升至 46.8%。

与此同时,市场出现了明显的板块轮动:资金从人工智能和半导体等高增长科技板块撤出,流向蓝筹股。纳斯达克 100 指数大跌 1.79%,而道琼斯指数则创下新高,显示出投资者情绪的防御性转向。

今日,预计市场将继续消化非农数据带来的影响,价格走势料将跟随技术面指引。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

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