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FOMC纪要重申抗通胀定力,服务业与原油共塑通胀预期

本周美联储会议纪要将揭示决策层在面对二次通胀风险时的内部共识。此外,新西兰联储的利率决定与IEA的原油月报,将分别从非美央行政策空间与上游能源成本的角度,对全球宏观基本面提供重要的交叉验证。

美国6月ISM非制造业PMI

周一公布的服务业PMI是评估美国内部通胀压力的核心前瞻指标。若数据显示服务业企业的投入成本继续呈现上行趋势,将进一步印证通胀去化的复杂性,届时或将支撑美债收益率及美元指数上行。

新西兰联储利率决定

周三焦点将转向新西兰联储。目前新西兰经济正面临增长放缓与通胀回落受阻的复杂局面。因此市场目前对7月份的利率决定存在高度不确定性,维持利率不变并非板上钉钉。若联储倾向于拯救经济疲态,释放边际降息信号,纽元将面临沉重的下行压力。

美联储公布货币政策会议纪要

周四美联储发布FOMC会议纪要,若纪要显示委员会坚持数据依赖,以及维持高利率达成广泛共识,将强化市场对紧缩环境的定价,届时将驱动资金加速回流美元。

IEA公布月度原油市场报告

周五IEA公布月度原油市场报告。市场将关注IEA对下半年原油供需的缺口。若报告强调原油需求端依然保持较高韧性,这将为油价提供坚实的底部支撑。届时或将促使美债市场在周末前维持相对紧缩的定价。

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