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加拿大央行进退两难,欧央行加息在即?


本周美国通胀数据将全方位检验美联储的高息防线。与此同时,欧洲央行与加拿大央行的利率决议将成为市场焦点。在内部经济动能疲软的背景下,这两大非美央行将引发跨资产领域的利差重估与资金重新配置。
 

美国5月纽约联储1年通胀预期

周一的纽约联储通胀预期,是政策制定者评估物价风险的重要参考。若调查数据显示消费者对未来一年的物价上涨预期有所反弹,将进一步印证通胀去化过程的复杂性,届时或对美元指数形成支撑。

美国5月未季调CPI年率

周三美国将公布CPI数据,若整体通胀或核心分项继续展现出较强的黏性,将大幅推迟市场的降息定价,推动长端美债收益率攀升及美元走强。

加拿大央行利率决议

周三同日,加拿大央行公布利率决定。此前5月份加拿大央行曾表示如果油价持续保持高位,则需要加息。不过当前油价预测存在”相当大的不确定性”,加央行成员们认为可以忽视因油价上涨带来的初始通胀冲击。

欧央行利率决议

周四欧洲央行公布最新利率决定,在通胀持续上行的背景下,该央行已在上月开始讨论加息,多位政策制定者也陆续释放收紧信号。当前金融市场预期6月份存在加息概率,并且市场基本计入两次上调的预期。

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