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黄金再遭空头袭击;日元飙跌至40年低点

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年6月30日

全球市场以强劲的反弹拉开了本周序幕。在纳入新成分股 Alphabet 的推动下,道琼斯指数首次收于 52,000 点上方,创下历史新高。

与此同时,随着市场将焦点转向即将公布的周四非农就业数据(NFP),黄金持续遭遇逆风。美元的强势与美债收益率预期的上升,令金价在周二亚盘时段再度跌破 4,000 美元关口。此外,美元兑日元汇率突破 162.0,触及 40 年来的最高水平。

展望今日,预计市场将继续围绕即将到来的非农数据进行仓位调整。虽然美股市场整体保持“看涨至盘整”的基调,但投资者仍需警惕潜在的波动。关于美股指数技术面的更多深度分析,请参阅我们之前的市场洞察报告。

黄金分析:跌势加深

黄金无疑是今日的焦点。在收益率预期上升、美元走强以及市场因股市高位运行而削弱避险需求的三重压力下,黄金面临严重抛压。

XAUUSD, 日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

从长期视角看,$4,150 为主要枢轴点,在此下方均被视为强劲的空头区域。金价正持续下探 $4,000 下方;

对于波段交易者,我们建议避免“接飞刀”。在考虑做多之前,请观察 $4,000 附近是否有迹象形成坚实底部。

XAUUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期来看,任何在 $4,050 – $4,100 区域下方的价格走势均在结构上维持看跌。日内交易方面,只要金价无法重回 $4,000 关口上方,应继续维持“逢高做空”(sell-the-rally)的策略。

白银:紧随黄金走弱

白银目前正跟随黄金的下行势头,难以维持技术支撑。作为高贝塔金属,白银对当前的收益率压力高度敏感。如果黄金进一步走弱,白银的跌幅恐将加剧。只要贵金属板块整体承压,我们对白银维持看跌立场。

XAGUSD, H2图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技术上,目前 $60.00 – $62.00 下方的区域处于下行波段。随着白银无法收复该水平,短期前景依然看跌,金价极有可能向下一个主要支撑位 $54.00 迈进。

美元兑日元:日元疲态难改,刷新40年新低

尽管日本央行此前进行了加息,但受美日息差持续扩大的影响,日元跌势未止。加之市场对日本债务问题的担忧,投资者依然坚定看空日元。尽管干预风险始终存在,但市场目前暂时选择了“无视”。

USDJPY, H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

在突破 161.80 的关键阻力位(2024年高点)后,汇价保持强劲的上升动能。交易员应关注日线或 4 小时 K 线是否能稳固于 162.00 上方以确认动能延续。

请注意,若跌回 161.80 下方,可能预示着假突破,并导致短期回调。 风险提示:可顺势参与突破行情,但务必严控风险。

尽管我们对 USDJPY 坚定看涨,但官方干预仍是多头面临的短期威胁。

市场总结

金融市场目前正处于“非农前夕的仓位调整期”。Alphabet 加入道指为蓝筹股注入了强劲动力,推动指数刷新 52,000 点的历史高位。然而,这种乐观情绪并未蔓延至贵金属市场。强势美元与美债收益率攀升的双重挤压,迫使黄金和白银纷纷跌破关键心理关口。投资者需为后续劳动力市场数据带来的波动提前做好风险管理。

今日关注焦点

  • 非农前奏:市场正积极为周四的重磅数据进行仓位调整,需警惕债市收益率与汇率的突发性剧烈波动。
  • 黄金走势:密切关注 $4,000 关口。若金价未能重回该位上方,本周看跌趋势恐将延续。
  • 日元干预风险:尽管市场暂时无视干预风险,但任何来自日本官方的口头干预警告都可能引发汇率急剧波动。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

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