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估值担忧全球抛售,美联储预期重挫市场情绪

今日市场正在消化一场严重风险资产抛售的余波,这场抛售由高飞科技板块的信心崩塌,以及市场对美联储政策预期的急剧重新调整所触发。估值担忧与更鹰派的美联储前景共同推动全球市场出现广泛清算。

美国股市风险:AI 高估值担忧回归

昨日是美国股市自 3–4 月因关税引发的抛售以来表现最差的交易日之一。S&P 500 下跌 1.7%,进一步远离近期历史高点;纳斯达克下跌 2.4%,科技股领跌。

主要原因 — AI 估值紧张情绪回升:这轮抛售主要受到市场对 AI 行业高估值担忧的重新升温。英伟达下跌 3.6%,其他 AI 概念股跌幅更深:

  • Super Micro:–7.4%
  • Palantir:–6.5%
  • Broadcom:–4.3%

在过去数月的强劲涨势之后,投资者借行业利空消息选择获利了结。同时,包括特斯拉在内的多家大型企业出现营收令人失望的消息,也加剧了卖压。

宏观变化:美联储立场转向鹰派

另一方面,美国政府停摆已于昨日正式结束,政治风险溢价消退,使市场重新聚焦在经济前景与美联储政策态度上。

  • 关键担忧: 市场愈发担心美联储可能不会在 12 月实施原先预期的 25 个基点降息。降息概率已从一周前的近 70% 和一个月前的 92% 大幅跌至仅 51%。
  • 数据洪流即将到来: 随着停摆结束,关键且长期延迟的经济数据(NFP、CPI)即将公布,这些数据将决定美联储是否会暂停降息周期。

这种政策不确定性——尤其是“降息可能被按下暂停键”——成为股市和风险资产的另一大压力源。

美国股指:面临潜在回调风险

尽管政府停摆结束令政治风险下降,但风险偏好却因政策前景更不明朗而退潮,使美国股市仍面对潜在回调压力。

NAS100,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

NAS100,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

从技术结构来看,尽管纳斯达克仍在其长期上涨通道内,但近期多次反弹未能突破前高,显示买盘动能正在减弱。

关键支撑位在 25,000 附近,该区域曾多次充当重要支撑。一旦跌破,可能引发更深、更快的技术性回调,尤其是在当前的宏观背景下。

加密市场:流动性压力引发更剧烈下跌

风险偏好降温及美联储降息预期进一步弱化,使加密货币市场比传统股市承受更大冲击。比特币跌破关键的 100,000 心理关口,创下 5 月以来最低水平;以太坊大跌 8% 至 3167。

  • 原因(货币政策恐惧): 加密货币属于高 Beta、高风险资产,依赖廉价且充裕的流动性(低利率)。
  • 市场意识到美联储 12 月可能不降息,意味着全球流动性收紧,使高风险资产承受重大压力。
  • 机构资金外流: 美国现货比特币 ETF 持续出现净流出,显示机构兴趣下降,引发典型的去杠杆行为,进而导致市场被迫清算。
BTCUSD,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

BTCUSD,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

全球市场的急跌使比特币难以找到支撑。105,000–102,000 支撑区被击穿后,再度跌破 100,000 心理关口,意味着比特币可能面临持续的下行压力。

在机构需求回归或美联储给出更明确的宽松信号前,出现实质反转的概率较低。

每日总结:市场情绪动摇

总体来看,包括股市与加密资产在内的风险资产,正面临情绪恶化下的回调风险。美国关键经济数据发布时间仍未明确,加上美联储当前的政策“盲区”与市场对降息预期显著下降,正共同压制风险偏好。

在昨日的全面抛售后,市场将关注下行动能是否继续累积。本周五的表现可能对下周市场方向具有关键影响,特别是投资者正等待官方确认延迟数据的发布时间表。

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