Important Information

This website is managed by Ultima Markets’ international entities, and it’s important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

Note: UK clients are kindly invited to visit https://www.ultima-markets.co.uk/. Ultima Markets UK expects to begin onboarding UK clients in accordance with FCA regulatory requirements in 2026.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Ultima Markets’ international entities and not by Ultima Markets UK Ltd, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Ultima Markets Limited, or any of the Ultima Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Ultima Markets Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Ultima Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Ultima Markets wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Ultima Markets entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom
Roll Arrow

美联储主导市场:鹰派降息还是鸽派转向?

每日市场展望 – 2025年12月10日,由Ultima Markets提供。

全球市场屏息以待,关注焦点完全转向美联储(Fed)今晚的利率决议。鉴于12月降息已被普遍预期,市场讨论已从“是否降息”转向“降息会偏鹰派还是鸽派转向?”——这一区别将决定美元及风险资产的近期走势。

美联储FOMC前瞻:鹰派降息 vs. 鸽派转向

今晚的决议将成为年度最重要的政策事件,其影响力远超近期任何经济数据发布。

  • 利率决议及经济预测摘要(SEP)、点阵图将于美东时间14:00公布,随后主席鲍威尔新闻发布会于14:30举行。
  • 市场共识:普遍预期25个基点降息,将目标利率区间下调至3.50%–3.75%,当前定价概率为87%–90%。由于降息已被充分计入,市场敏感度将完全取决于美联储的沟通。

鉴于劳动力市场数据存在分歧(ADP疲软 vs. 初请失业金下降)且通胀仍高于目标(PCE 2.8%),许多人预期降息将偏鹰派。该情景意味着美联储将降息,但对未来宽松步伐保持谨慎,强调通胀风险仍然存在。

今晚关注要点

市场真正关注的是点阵图,显示美联储成员对2026年及以后的利率预测。如果中位数预测显示降息次数少于市场预期(约四次),美元可能大幅上涨。

根据9月点阵图,大多数官员预测2026年降息0–4次。如果今晚的点阵图显示更鸽派立场,则可能令美元下跌,形成鸽派转向情景。

此外,鲍威尔的措辞将被密切关注。若强调“继续警惕通胀”或将降息定义为对经济衰退的“保险”,将被视为鹰派信号。

美元展望:降息已计入,关注政策转向

由于12月降息已计入,美元近期走势将完全取决于鲍威尔新闻发布会的语气及点阵图中2026年的预测。

  • 鹰派降息(美元看涨):若鲍威尔语气谨慎且点阵图显示2026年仅有一至两次降息,美元可能反弹,扭转近期跌势。USDX有望挑战100.00阻力位。
  • 鸽派降息(美元看跌):若鲍威尔表态支持更广泛的宽松周期,USDX预计将 decisively 跌破99.00心理支撑,加速下行动力,目标指向98.00。
USDX,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技术上,美元在99.25–98.70区间盘整,徘徊于99.00附近。若美联储引发的突破发生,将为下一步方向性走势奠定基础。

EUR/USD展望:升势通道内盘整

受近期美元走弱支撑,EUR/USD在美联储决议前面临二元风险。目前该汇价在过去一个月形成的升势通道内波动。

EUR/USD,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

EUR/USD,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

EUR/USD在1.1650–1.1600区间盘整,即时方向将由美联储决定:鸽派降息可能进一步打压美元,支撑欧元上涨;鹰派降息则可能扭转走势。 技术面看,保持在1.1600以上仍有望向升势通道顶部推进;跌破该水平——尤其伴随鹰派美联储——可能加速下行压力,强化美元并令EUR/USD下跌。

今日关注重点

市场今日关注完全在美联储12月决议。鸽派转向可能支撑风险资产和黄金,而鹰派降息则可能对市场施压。核心资产前景:

  • 纳指与标普500:两指数接近历史高位,反映谨慎乐观。鹰派降息可能触发下行压力,尤其在关键阻力位附近。
  • 黄金:价格在4,240–4,200区间盘整。若突破此区间,将开启下一方向走势。鹰派美联储结果对黄金构成下行风险。

免责声明

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

立即分享

  • Article Details
  • Article Details
  • Article Details

Thank you for visiting the Ultima Markets website. Please note that this website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing is permitted by law. Ultima and its affiliated entities do not operate in your home jurisdictions.

By clicking on ''Acknowledge'', you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website based on reverse solicitation principles, in accordance with the applicable laws of your home jurisdiction.