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美联储鹰派降息中带有鸽派基调:美元面临压力

每日市场洞察 – 2025年12月11日 | Ultima Markets

全球市场对美联储广泛预期的25个基点降息作出反应,将目标利率区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。虽然降息已被充分计入,市场注意力迅速转向美联储的声明及2026年最新预测。

美联储最新动态:鹰派降息,但带有鸽派基调

12月决议体现了典型的“鹰派降息”——美联储放松政策,但对未来降息步伐保持谨慎。主要要点:

  • 点阵图显示降息次数减少:中位数预测显示2026年仅有一次降息,低于市场预期,反映通胀持续担忧。这消除了过度激进的宽松押注,并支撑美元。
  • 投票分歧:9名官员支持降息,2名维持不变,1名投票支持50个基点降幅,凸显内部对宽松路径的争论。
  • 市场解读:尽管宽松正在进行,美联储仍对通胀风险保持谨慎,抑制市场对快速或长期降息周期的预期。

尽管点阵图偏鹰,但鲍威尔主席新闻发布会及12月经济预测摘要(SEP)传递了更为鸽派的基调。

鲍威尔声明:灵活且数据依赖

鲍威尔强调未来利率调整不设固定路径,政策保持数据依赖:

  • 作为基准情景,不预期加息,支持鸽派倾向。
  • 劳动力市场出现放缓迹象,支持当前宽松立场。
  • 若通胀或劳动力条件需要进一步宽松,美联储保持开放态度。

通胀与经济前景

12月SEP提供政策决策背景,显示潜在鸽派偏向:核心PCE通胀:预计2026年降至2.5%;总体PCE通胀:预计为2.4%。

12月份点阵图 | 来源:美联储

12月份点阵图 | 来源:美联储

点阵图显示观点分歧广泛:中位数显示一次降息,但个别预测范围从0次至4次,体现美联储灵活性及对数据依赖的重视。这支持未来利率调整采取谨慎积极态度,而非完全鹰派。

市场影响:美元面临压力

美联储潜在鸽派基调已抑制部分早前鹰派猜测,给美元带来近期下行压力。

USDX,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX已跌破关键支撑位,显示美元可能进入新一轮下行阶段。鸽派基调表明继续下行风险,短期反弹可能提供交易者“逢高卖出”的机会。

加拿大央行:维持利率,暗示宽松周期接近尾声

加拿大央行(BoC)昨日公布2025年最后一次政策决议,符合市场预期,同时暗示宽松周期可能暂停。

  • 政策决议:行长Tiff Macklem表示当前利率“基本合适”,既可维持通胀接近2%目标,又支持经济在结构调整期间运行。
  • 前瞻指引:BoC强调,如果通胀和经济活动大体符合10月预测,当前利率适宜,暗示近期进一步降息空间有限。

决议被解读为略偏鹰派,部分2026年原定降息预期被削减。Ultima Markets分析师认为,BoC可能暂不再降息,加强加元对美元的中性至支撑性走势。

USD/CAD影响:BoC暂停与中性立场提供了加元支撑,尤其相对于美元,市场开始预期稳定而非进一步宽松。

每日市场总结

  • 美元:由于鸽派基调抑制早前鹰派猜测,近期面临下行风险。短期反弹可能提供卖出机会。
  • USD/CAD:BoC暂停政策强化加元对美元的支撑。
  • 美联储前景:2026年中位数预测一次降息,个别观点从0至4次,凸显灵活性和数据依赖。
  • 市场主题:央行政策分歧创造外汇机会,美元承压,而其他主要货币相对获得支撑。

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