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Early today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points as widely expected, bringing it to 3.75%. This decision marks the third consecutive half-percentage-point cut since August 2025, aimed at stimulating the economy and employment.
In its policy statement, the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee noted that headline inflation remains near the 2% midpoint, with core inflation continuing to decline toward the target. The Committee expressed confidence that the current economic outlook supports keeping inflation within the target range over the medium term, allowing for continued easing of the OCR through 2025.
Governor Orr: Lower OCR Further Through 2025
Governor Orr highlighted that while domestic inflationary pressures are easing due to spare productive capacity, global economic uncertainties—such as geopolitical tensions and potential trade barriers—pose risks to the economic outlook. The RBNZ remains prepared to adjust monetary policy further if economic conditions evolve as projected.
(RBNZ OCR Rate Projection, Source: RBNZ)
(RBNZ OCR Rate Projection, Source: RBNZ)
The projected Official Cash Rate (OCR) trajectory, represented by the pink line in the February Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), suggests a slightly more aggressive rate-cutting approach. The OCR is expected to fall to 3% by the end of 2025, implying an additional 75 basis points in cuts.
While the projection does not specify exact meeting dates for future cuts, the slope of the forecasted trajectory suggests the next rate cut could occur sometime between mid-to-late 2025, depending on economic conditions. This aligns with Governor Orr’s comments that further easing remains a possibility if inflation continues to decline.
Technical Outlook for NZDUSD Chart
(NZDUSD 4-H Chart Analysis, Source: Trading View)
(NZDUSD 4-H Chart Analysis, Source: Trading View)
The NZD/USD initially declined following the dovish RBNZ decision, but the losses were quickly erased.
From a technical standpoint, the overall setup for NZD/USD remains unchanged. The pair recently broke out of a consolidation zone near a three-year low, signaling a potential bullish reversal. This outlook is further supported by its ability to hold above the 0.5690 (0.5700) resistance-turned-support level.
If 0.5690 holds, it could indicate that the market has fully priced in the RBNZ’s dovish stance. Additionally, recent U.S. dollar weakness could further support upside momentum for the pair.
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