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Gold climbed to a fresh all-time high in the Asian session today, touching $3,759.7, as markets advanced expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Last week’s 25 basis-point reduction, alongside signals of up to two more cuts before year-end, has fuelled strong demand.
The rally has also been underpinned by steady central bank purchases, persistent inflation concerns, and a softer U.S. dollar. Safe-haven demand remains robust, with few negative catalysts to slow the metal’s advance.
Caution on Near-Term Pullback
However, risks of a short-term correction remain. While markets are pricing in aggressive easing, Fed officials have not been as dovish, stressing that future moves will depend on incoming data.
With a string of key U.S. releases due this week, stronger-than-expected numbers could revive the dollar and trigger a hawkish shift in rate expectations, potentially leading to a pullback in gold.
Despite near-term risks, the broader outlook for gold remains constructive. Real yields are likely to trend lower as the Fed moves deeper into its easing cycle, offering continued support for the uptrend.
Gold Technical Outlook
XAU/USD, 2-Hour Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5
From a technical perspective, Fibonacci extension of the pullback wave from September 19 places the 161.8% target around $3,750, a level where profit-taking has already emerged. Gold is also edging into overbought territory, with the MACD showing early signs of a potential bearish crossover.
A near-term pullback cannot be ruled out if the market fails to sustain momentum above current highs. On the downside, the first support is located near $3,730, with stronger support at the key $3,700 psychological level. Holding above these zones would keep the broader uptrend intact.
What’s Next for Gold
Looking ahead, gold’s trajectory will hinge on a mix of Fed communication and upcoming U.S. data. Any signs of softer growth or cooling inflation could reinforce expectations for further easing, supporting fresh highs. Conversely, stronger data may lift the dollar and prompt a corrective pullback.
Over the medium term, gold likely entered into a corrective wave should price action kept the gold under current resistance. Despite that, the broader trend remains bullish as falling real yields and ongoing safe-haven demand continue to underpin the market.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
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