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Australia’s latest economic data—featuring weaker-than-expected GDP growth and a renewed pickup in monthly inflation—has reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stay on hold for an extended period. Markets now broadly agree that any RBA rate cuts are unlikely before the second half of 2026.
Soft GDP Signals Weak Consumer Momentum
Q3 2025 GDP (QoQ): +0.4% (vs. +0.7% expected)
Q3 2025 GDP (YoY): 2.1% (vs. 2.2% expected)
The headline +0.4% growth print came in below consensus, pointing to a consumer sector that continues to lose momentum. Household consumption slowed further, highlighting ongoing pressure from elevated borrowing costs and weak real income growth.
While slower activity typically strengthens the case for policy easing, the growth weakness alone was not sufficient to shift the RBA’s stance.
Inflation Remains the RBA’s Core Concern
The Monthly CPI Indicator unexpectedly rose to 3.8%, confirming that inflation remains uncomfortably sticky. Services inflation, in particular, shows persistent strength—a key concern for the central bank.
With inflation still well above the 2–3% target band, the RBA’s priority remains clear: maintain restrictive policy until disinflation resumes. The uptick in CPI fundamentally outweighs the softer GDP signal.
Rate-Cut Timeline Pushed Well Into 2026
Market pricing for rate cuts has shifted sharply:
December 9 RBA meeting: ~96% probability of no cut
Major Australian banks, including ANZ, have scrapped forecasts for early-2026 cuts
ASX RBA Rate Tracker: ~94% probability the cash rate stays at 3.60%
Money markets are fully aligned with a “higher for longer” view—marking a strong contrast with U.S. markets, where the Fed’s December cuts are priced at nearly 90%.
Some traders are even positioning for a tail risk of a potential hike should inflation hold above 3.8%, though this is not the base case.
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