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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website新西蘭儲備銀行(RBNZ)將官方現金利率(OCR)下調25個基點至3.0%,創三年新低,自2024年8月以來累計降息已達250個基點。
本次決議投票結果分歧較大,6名委員會成員中有4人支持降息25個基點,而另外2人則傾向於更大幅度的50個基點降息。
此次降息反映出經濟疲軟的信號不斷加劇:
RBNZ強調,如經濟狀況進一步惡化,將準備提供更多支持。值得注意的是,其將預測的OCR低點下調至2.55%(此前為2.85%),這意味著仍有進一步寬鬆空間。
投票分歧顯示出委員會內部偏向更激進寬鬆的傾向。既然已有兩名成員支持50個基點降息,若未來經濟數據繼續疲軟,市場預計RBNZ可能加快寬鬆步伐。
掉期市場目前定價顯示,10月和11月可能再次降息,年底OCR或降至2.5%。
新西蘭元(NZD)週三大幅下跌,兌美元下跌約1.2%,觸及四個月低點0.5820,市場迅速消化了這一鴿派信號。
掉期利率也降至2022年初以來的最低水平2.85%,反映出對進一步寬鬆的預期。
NZD/USD 日線圖 | 來源:Ultima Market MT5
在RBNZ鴿派立場推動下,紐元/美元繼續下行,跌破0.5855頸線支撐,刷新四個月低點。
這一突破顯示短期內可能進入新的下行趨勢,如果賣壓持續,後市仍有進一步下跌空間。
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