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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website本週,美聯儲將面臨更高關注度,傑克森霍爾全球央行年會成為市場焦點,投資者正翹首以待美聯儲未來貨幣政策走向及利率前景的訊號。時機尤為關鍵,因為上週剛公布的通脹數據表現分化。
這場年度央行行長、經濟學家與政策制定者的聚會,為美聯儲主席鮑威爾提供了一個罕見且極具影響力的平台,去回應關鍵的政策挑戰。他的講話將被市場逐字解讀,尋找美聯儲如何應對矛盾數據、持續的通脹擔憂,以及不斷加大的政治壓力。
近期經濟數據凸顯了不確定性:雖然整體CPI顯示出一定降溫跡象,但核心CPI依舊頑固,而生產者物價指數(PPI)意外上行——這加劇了市場擔憂,即關稅帶來的成本壓力可能逐漸傳導至消費端。
外匯市場保持謹慎,美元在鮑威爾講話前維持震盪。任何語調上的變化,都可能引發匯市和股市波動。
若鮑威爾釋放鴿派訊號,將強化近期降息預期,可能令美元走弱,同時提振股市和風險資產。相反,如果講話偏謹慎甚至鷹派,可能推遲降息預期,從而支撐美元,並加劇債市與股市的波動。
美元指數(USDX)日線圖分析 | 來源:Ultima Market MT5
美元指數近期維持窄幅整理,區間在98.50至97.50之間震盪。
若突破該區間,將可能為下一輪方向性行情奠定基礎。在市場觀望情緒主導下,本週的傑克森霍爾會議或成為打破美元震盪格局的催化劑。
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