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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom自4月2日宣佈「對等關稅」以來,美元已大幅下跌逾4%。這一跌幅反映出投資者情緒的重大轉變,資金正從美國資產流出,轉向歐洲和亞洲市場。
川普政府實施對等關稅的決定,引發市場對美國經濟前景的疑慮。市場的即時反應是轉趨謹慎,投資者開始質疑美國金融市場的長期穩定性。這次關稅針對歐盟、日本等傳統盟友,已造成外交摩擦,並遭到多方批評。
地緣政治風險的升溫削弱了市場對美國經濟領導地位的信心,進一步導致明顯的資本外流。
美國資產,尤其是美國國債,近期遭遇大幅拋售,投資者轉而尋找更安全或更穩定的替代品。這波拋售推高了國債殖利率,顯示市場的風險厭惡情緒升溫,以及對美國金融工具的需求下降。
儘管3月的通膨數據展現正面進展,美國聯準會的貨幣政策仍保持謹慎。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行總裁博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)指出,美國距離2%的通膨目標仍有「一段長路要走」,暗示短期內不太可能轉向緊縮。
根據CME FedWatch工具,目前市場預計在2025年底前將有2到3次降息,高於此前預期的1至2次。這一變化反映出市場對整體經濟風險的擔憂正在升溫。

(CME FedWatch 2025年降息機率圖;來源:CME Group)
隨著市場對美國資產信心減弱,市場對聯準會進一步寬鬆的預期也在增強,這加劇了對美元的下行壓力。上週,美元跌至三年來最低點,跌破關鍵心理關口100。

(USDX+ 美元指數日線圖;來源:Ultima Market MT5)
目前美元在此關鍵位置附近震盪,在美國經濟政策與全球貿易局勢持續不明朗的背景下,美元未來仍面臨挑戰。
從技術面來看,只要美元指數(USDX)維持在101.80以下,整體偏空趨勢可能延續,暗示美元仍有進一步下行空間。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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