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歐元因法國政治動蕩和強勁美國數據承壓 

歐元在12月初承壓 

周一,由于擔憂法國政府可能倒台,這可能會阻礙解決國家預算赤字日益增加的努力,歐元兌美元走軟。EURUSD在ISM發布強勁美國制造業數據後延續跌勢,下跌0.73%,收于1.0497。 

(EURUSD每日價格圖表,來源:Trading View) 

(EURUSD每日價格圖表,來源:Trading View) 

在歐洲,法國政府債券相較于德國基准債券的風險溢價飙升。此前,法國極右翼政黨國民聯盟 (RN) 領袖喬丹·巴爾代拉 (Jordan Bardella) 表示,如果未能達成最後一刻的妥協,他的政黨可能會支持一項不信任動議。 

法國的政治不穩定和強于預期的美國經濟數據給12月初的歐元走勢帶來了巨大壓力。如預期,法國臨時政府面臨可能失去不信任投票的局面。在夏季前無法舉行新選舉的情況下,近期內削減預算赤字的解決方案似乎難以實現。 

法國和德國10年期國債之間的收益率差——衡量投資者所需風險溢價的指標——擴大了7.6個基點,達到87.3個基點。此前,收益率差曾達到90個基點的峰值,標志著自2012年歐元區主權債務危機以來的最高水平。 

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