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歐洲央行面臨通脹上升與政策路徑的不確定性 

歐元區通脹因能源和服務成本上漲至2.4% 

歐元區的通脹率在12月加速上升，從11月的2.2%攀升至2.4%，並符合預期。這主要是由于能源價格上漲以及服務行業成本增加。歐元兌美元下跌0.48%，收盤于1.034美元。 

（歐元區通脹圖表，來源：Eurostat） 

（歐元區通脹圖表，來源：Eurostat） 

（歐元兌美元日價格圖表，來源：Trading View） 

（歐元兌美元日價格圖表，來源：Trading View） 

核心通脹率是衡量價格增長持續性的重要指標，仍然居高不下。這可能會加強對歐洲央行在未來幾個月采取謹慎政策放松的呼籲。支持這一謹慎立場的還有歐洲央行的一項消費者調查，該調查顯示短期和中期通脹預期均有所上升。對未來三年通脹的預測從上次調查的2.1%升至2.4%，明顯高于歐洲央行的目標。 

雖然通脹率最近飙升並接近歐洲央行的2%目標，但未來的數據可能仍然不穩定。然而，從中長期來看，整體趨勢預計將下降，尤其是在下半年更有可能接近歐洲央行設定的目標。 

去年，歐洲央行多次降息，表明通脹目標幾乎觸手可及。更多的寬松政策即將出台，但其速度和時間仍未確定。目前，投資者對每次會議（直至6月）的降息預期持懷疑態度，預計歐洲央行在上半年某次會議中跳過降息的概率為50%。 

免責聲明 

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考，旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢，並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性，但不能保證資料的絕對准確性，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損（包括但不限于利潤損失）不承擔責任。 

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