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周四,日本央行行長植田和男表達了對美國經濟前景的樂觀態度,指出其強勁增長正在擴大。然而,他強調市場仍不穩定,對于日本經濟風險是否在減弱任持有較為複雜的看法。
當被問及最近日元貶值對通脹的影響時,植田解釋說,日本央行不僅要考慮彙率波動,還必須考慮驅動這些波動的因素,例如對美國經濟的認知變化。他表示:“最近日元的下跌部分是由于對美國經濟的樂觀情緒增加所致。”過去四周,美元兌日元連續上漲,累計漲幅接近7%。

(美元兌日元周線圖,來源:Trading View)
植田關于美國經濟和市場狀況的言論引發了關注,尤其是在他最近強調了美國實現“軟著陸”的不確定性以及金融市場波動作為關鍵風險之後。這種不確定性促使日本央行在進一步加息問題上保持謹慎態度。市場的不穩定性,加上隱含波動率仍然較高,表明央行仍對市場重新陷入波動的風險保持警惕。
植田重申,如果經濟按預期發展,日本央行將繼續加息。然而,他也強調必須密切關注全球不確定性,例如美國的經濟前景,以確定下一次加息的時機。
此外,即將到來的日本大選可能會使日本央行的政策正常化計劃變得複雜。政治不穩定的前景可能會對央行的加息路徑産生影響,因為它正試圖從接近零的利率水平順利提升利率。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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