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美國或推遲降息，美元仍然保持強勢  

今日Ultima Markets 爲您帶來了 2024年 2月 9日紐元兌美元的深入分析。  

基本面要點  

  • 聯準會3月不可能降息：美國至2月3日當週初請失業金人數錄得21.8萬人，美國上週初請失業金人數降幅大於預期，表明儘管近期裁員人數激增，但就業市場依然強勁。這強化了近期不可能降息的觀點，美元短期仍將保持強勢。  
  • 紐聯儲或加息：基於澳大利亞和新西蘭兩國通脹仍處於高位，市場開始預期新西蘭聯儲或將與2月或4月繼續加息。其中澳新銀行現預計新西蘭聯儲將在四月份將現金利率提高至6%。 

技術分析  

日線圖表分析 

（紐元兌美元日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 隨機震盪指標：指標本週在50中位線下方發出多頭信號，暗示多頭力量或短期佔據上風。但是由於信號並非發生在超賣區域，因此需要警惕看待該信號。  
  • 強勁的阻力：儘管亞盤時段紐元久開始異動，快速上漲0.5%的漲幅。但由於上方阻力極爲強勁，除了綠色240日均線和33日均線聯合組成的移動阻力，還有此前旗形震盪區間的下沿作爲壓制區域。  
  • 艾略特波浪理論：自去年年底紐元開啓了下跌驅動浪，截至2月初內部結構完整，因此今日的收盤較爲重要。若匯價最終受阻多重阻力繼續下跌，則浪5並非是簡單浪而將繼續形成延長浪5。若紐元升值突破阻力，則反轉上漲的概率急劇上升。 

4小時圖表分析 

（紐元兌美元4小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 隨機震盪指標：指標在50中位線上方發出多頭信號，但是配合匯價來看，指標目前有頂背離的可能性。除非匯價持續上漲，否則一旦多頭力量衰竭，則指標將立刻形成空頭信號，屆時匯價或下跌速度強勁。  
  • 多重阻力：匯價上方是綠色240週期均線，同時下行趨勢和旗形通道下沿聯合組成了阻力區域，等待匯價觸及後的反饋。 

Trading Central樞紐線指標 

（紐元兌美元30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP）  

  • 根據Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central樞紐線指標，當日中樞價位0.6081，  
  • 0.6081之上看漲，第一目標0.6118，第二目標0.6129  
  • 0.6081之下看跌，第一目標0.6063，第二目標0.6053  

免責聲明   

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料只能視作一般市場資訊，僅爲協助讀者瞭解市場形勢而提供，並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已採取合理措施確保資料的準確性，但不能保證資料的精確度，及可隨時更改而毋須作出通知。Ultima Markets不會爲直接或間接使用或依賴此等資料而可能引致的任何虧損或損失（包括但不限於任何盈利的損失）負責。  

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