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周一,國家統計局將英國第三季度GDP增長率從此前報告的0.1%下調至0.0%,顯示出在首相基爾·斯塔默政府執政的前三個月內,英國經濟完全未能增長。這突顯了更廣泛的經濟放緩,籠罩著他執政初期的局勢。

(英國第三季度GDP環比增長,來源:國家統計局)
國家統計局還將第二季度的增長率從0.5%下調至0.4%。自7月初上任以來,斯塔默及財政大臣雷切爾·裏夫斯已對經濟的脆弱性發出警告。在10月30日的預算案中,他們對企業實施了稅收增加,盡管此舉引發了雇主們的擔憂。經濟學家指出,這種謹慎可能形成了自我強化效應,進一步壓制了經濟增長勢頭。周三的數據暗示今年下半年經濟增長停滯不前。
英格蘭銀行上周預測第四季度不會出現經濟增長,但由于通脹壓力仍然存在,維持利率不變。GDP修訂部分反映了出口需求疲軟,盡管國內消費支出和企業投資保持穩定。盡管經濟勉強避開了技術性衰退(即連續兩個季度萎縮),但數據增加了英格蘭銀行可能在2025年初降息的可能性。
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