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美國非農就業數據超出預期 

非農報告暗示美聯儲暫停降息 

上周五，美國勞工統計局發布的數據顯示，美國經濟在12月新增就業崗位超出預期，這增加了美聯儲在下次政策會議上不降低利率的可能性。 

12月，美國新增25.6萬個就業崗位，遠高于經濟學家預計的16萬個。11月的新增就業數據被下修至21. 2萬個。失業率也從預期的4.2%改善至4.1%。在就業人口比例上升的背景下，12月平均時薪增長0.3%，低于11月的0.4%。全年工資增長率為3.9%，略低于11月的4.0%。 

（來源：美國非農就業數據，LSEG DataStream） 

（來源：美國非農就業數據，LSEG DataStream） 

強勁的12月就業數據降低了美聯儲進一步大幅降息的必要性。根據LSEG的估算，在數據發布後，美國利率期貨市場已經完全計入美聯儲在1月會議上暫停降息的可能性。當前市場預期2025年僅會有27個基點（bps）的進一步寬松，相當于一次降息，首次調整預計在6月會議上進行。 

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