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美國房屋建設達到10個月高點

房屋建設增長，但面臨挑戰

美國獨棟住宅建設在12月達到10個月高點，表明年底住房活動有所改善。然而，上升的抵押貸款利率和市場上新房供應過剩可能會減緩複蘇步伐。

根據周五美國商務部的一份報告，上月單戶住宅未來建設許可也有所增加，達到自2024年2月以來的最高水平。許多經濟學家表示，經季節調整後，這一增長可能只是一次短期波動。

根據美國商務部人口普查局的數據，單戶住宅開工占房屋建設活動的大部分，12月經季節調整的年率增長3.3%，達到自2024年2月以來的最高水平。分地區來看，單戶住宅建設在東北地區增長14.3%，中西部增長8.3%，西部增長7.1%，但在人口密集的南部保持不變。同比來看，12月單戶住宅開工下降了2.6%。

（住房開工和建築許可圖表，來源：LSEG 數據流）

（住房開工和建築許可圖表，來源：LSEG 數據流）

特朗普政府樂觀的政策，包括征收高額關稅以及大規模驅逐無證移民，可能會對這一領域的進展構成挑戰。經濟學家警告，這些政策可能進一步推高商品價格並加劇勞動力短缺，使得住房和制造業的增長難以持續。

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