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美元因關稅暫停而下跌

市場靜待特朗普行動

周一，由于美國新政府官員表示當選總統唐納德·特朗普在上任首日不會實施新的貿易關稅，美元大幅下跌。這一消息緩解了市場對關稅突襲的擔憂。

（美元指數日線圖，來源：Trading View）


（美元指數日線圖，來源：Trading View）


特朗普將在當天晚些時候就職，他此前提議對全球進口商品征收10%的關稅，對中國商品征收60%的關稅，以及對加拿大和墨西哥商品征收25%的附加稅。這些措施可能擾亂貿易流動、提高成本並引發報複行動。


市場似乎因有關“首日無關稅”的新聞感到寬慰。然而，我們認為這種信心可能有些過于樂觀。雖然上任首日全面征稅的可能性一直很低，但就職後不久出台更有針對性的進口關稅仍有可能。


此外，有報道稱特朗普計劃指示聯邦機構評估美國與中國及鄰國的貿易關系。這些評估的具體內容尚不清楚，隨著細節的披露，市場可能在未來幾小時或幾天內逆轉這一最新反應。影響還將取決于特朗普簽署行政命令的速度。據報道，特朗普今天可能簽署多達100項行政命令，其中可能包括針對能源和金融領域的放松監管措施，以及與加密貨幣相關的政策。


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