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澳大利亞通脹趨勢提升澳儲行降息預期 

核心通脹下降加強了澳儲行采取行動的理由 

11月，澳大利亞消費者價格因電價上漲而有所上升。這使通脹從三年來的低點略微上升，同時由于核心通脹的下降，進一步支持了最早在下月降息的理由。根據澳大利亞統計局發布的數據，月度消費者價格指數（CPI）按年增長，11月為2.3%，高于10月的2.1%，也略高于市場預期的2.2%。 

（澳大利亞CPI年同比圖表，來源：澳大利亞統計局） 

（澳大利亞CPI年同比圖表，來源：澳大利亞統計局） 

值得注意的是，修正均值作為核心通脹的重要指標也逐步降至年率3.2%，低于此前的3.5%，這是一個樂觀的信號，符合澳大利亞儲備銀行（RBA）2%-3%的目標區間。如果澳儲行發布季度報告，這一趨勢預計將增強其對實現通脹目標的信心。 

自2022年9月以來，澳儲行將官方目標現金利率維持在4.35%，認為這一水平足以將通脹控制在目標範圍內，同時保持就業增長。目前的現金利率相比疫情期間創下的0.1%曆史低點，有了顯著提高，反映出央行更為保守的政策立場。然而，由于經濟活動放緩，澳儲行上月末對其貨幣政策表現出了溫和的態度。 

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本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料僅供參考，旨在幫助讀者了解市場形勢，並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施確保資料的准確性，但不能保證資料的絕對准確性，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets對于因直接或間接使用或依賴此類資料而可能導致的任何損失或虧損（包括但不限于利潤損失）不承擔責任。 

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