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日元仍在貶值，美日政策成風向標

今日Ultima Markets 為您帶來了 2024年 12月 18日的美元兌日元深入分析。

美元兌日元基本面分析 

  • 恐怖數據不恐怖：美國11月零售銷售月率錄得0.7%，為9月以來新高，市場預期增長0.5%。11月零售額較上月有所增長，反映出美國消費者的持續韌性，也是美國假日購物季開局強勁的初步跡象。該報告未能引發明顯的市場反應。 
  • 日央行出場：日本央行將於12月19日(週四)中午公佈議息會議的結果，日本央行大概率維持貨幣政策不變。市場認為本次會議看點在於會後的記者招待會中植田行長是否對下次會議加息做出暗示。 
  • 美聯儲降息：美聯儲將先於日本央行公佈利率決議，同時12月還將公佈未來經濟預期摘要。本次會議大概率降息25基點，市場更多關注明年點陣圖的利率路徑。 

美元兌日元技術分析 

美元兌日元日線圖表分析 

（美元兌日元的日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

（美元兌日元的日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 隨機震盪指標：快線進入超買區域即將掉頭向下，暗示短期多頭力量不足，遇到關鍵阻力位匯價有向下調整的概率。 
  • 阻力價位：美元兌日元受訂單塊（OB）水準價位阻擋，昨日下跌調整。目前亞盤有向上反彈趨勢，即便突破訂單塊阻力價位，匯價也或將受阻於78.2%斐波那契回撤位附近。 

美元兌日元1小時圖表分析 

（美元兌日元1小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

（美元兌日元1小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 隨機震盪指標：指標在超賣區域發出多頭信號，亞盤時段市價或將反彈上漲。亞盤時段快線和慢線相繼進入50中位線上方，明確反彈較為強勁，短期仍將繼續上行。 
  • 均線信號：紫色13週期均線未下穿黑色65週期均線，匯價就反彈突破均線阻力。匯價存在小幅下跌調整概率，若匯價在調整後再度突破153.766短期高點，則美元兌日元在遇阻日線阻力前有持續上漲的概率。 

美元兌日元Trading Central樞紐線指標 

（美元兌日元的30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP）

（美元兌日元的30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP） 

  • 根據Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central樞紐線指標，當日中樞價位154.00， 
  • 154.00之上看漲，第一目標154.50，第二目標154.85 
  • 154.00之下看跌，第一目標153.10，第二目標152.70 

免責聲明  

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料只能視作一般市場資訊，僅為協助讀者瞭解市場形勢而提供，並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已採取合理措施確保資料的準確性，但不能保證資料的精確度，及可隨時更改而毋須作出通知。Ultima Markets不會為直接或間接使用或依賴此等資料而可能引致的任何虧損或損失（包括但不限於任何盈利的損失）負責。  

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