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盈利增長提振， 美國經濟數據成焦點

上週，美國主要股指表現強勁，主要受到多家大公司超預期盈利的推動。特別是Alphabet（NASDAQ：GOOGL）的業績報告重燃了對人工智慧的樂觀情緒，進一步推動了科技板塊的上漲。

投資者情緒推動三大股指上漲，其中標準普爾500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數分別上漲了4.6%和2.5%。同時，以科技股為主的納斯達克指數上漲了6.7%，重返19000點以上。

美中貿易迷霧：資訊混亂動搖投資者信心

最近美國官員的言論引發了有關美中貿易談判狀態的混亂。美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，他並未得知任何與中國的關稅談判，這與川普總統之前的言論相矛盾，後者曾聲稱與中國國家主席習近平進行了最近的對話。

川普政府曾顯示出緩解貿易戰緊張局勢的意圖，而這場貿易戰已對市場造成不穩定，並引發了全球衰退的擔憂。然而，中國方面否認有任何談判，這讓投資者對美方的說法產生了懷疑，進一步加大了對貿易爭端未來走向的疑慮。

美國經濟數據成焦點

本週，美國將發布幾項關鍵經濟報告，包括初步的2025年第一季度GDP、3月PCE物價指數（美聯儲首選的通脹衡量標準），以及4月勞動市場的主要數據，包括失業率和非農就業人數。

特別是4月就業數據將極為重要，因為它將揭示川普關稅政策實施後的美國經濟表現。

隨著貿易戰的不確定性持續，投資者將密切關注關稅對美國經濟的影響。美國股市在過去兩周強勁反彈，部分得益於川普暫停了互相徵收關稅以及強勁的第一季度財報。

然而，這些財報反映的是第一季度的結果，而關稅政策尚未生效。因此，如果即將公佈的經濟數據不盡如人意，尤其是在貿易談判充滿不確定性的背景下，投資者信心可能會受到打擊。

4月就業數據是否反映關稅影響？

勞動市場數據是衡量經濟表現的關鍵指標，而4月非農就業數據和失業率尤其重要，投資者對此將密切關注。

4月的勞動市場數據將提供有關關稅對美國實際經濟影響的線索。如果就業市場顯著惡化，美國股市可能會作出強烈反應。

（SP500+，日線圖分析；來源：Ultima Market MT5）

標準普爾500指數目前正向關鍵的5500點阻力位攀升。儘管近期出現上漲，但該指數依然處於熊市區域。因此，如果就業數據令人失望，標準普爾500指數可能會再次進入下行趨勢，這將引發關於關稅對美國經濟和股市實際影響的擔憂。

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