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美股在關鍵位置面臨壓力;加密市場風險加劇

Ultima Markets 每日市場洞察 – 2026年4月2日

本週四,全球市場正經歷一場方向爭奪的激烈博弈。隨著美伊地緣政治危機持續籠罩宏觀環境,風險情緒依然高度脆弱,使傳統股市與加密貨幣市場均面臨突發下行壓力的風險。

美股:關鍵位置的多空拉鋸

標普500與納斯達克100目前正處於激烈的多空博弈之中。一方面,多頭試圖逢低買入;另一方面,空頭則利用不斷惡化的宏觀基本面加大拋售力度。儘管日內偶有反彈,但整體前景目前仍明顯偏空。

基本面壓力對股市而言過於沉重。持續的美伊衝突維持了較高的地緣政治風險溢價,而能源價格的上漲則重新點燃通膨擔憂,並強化了「不會降息」的市場預期。

隨著滯脹風險上升,美聯儲被迫維持緊縮政策立場。這一環境推動美國國債收益率維持在高位,對未來企業盈利進行更高折現,並抽離支撐高估值所需的流動性。

標普500展望

SP500,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

SP500,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

從技術面來看,標普500已反彈至6,520–6,610這一關鍵多空分水嶺區域。該水平對於判斷市場多空結構至關重要。

在基本面壓力未明顯緩解之前,除非中東局勢出現明確轉機或通膨風險顯著降溫,交易員仍可能選擇在反彈中賣出。

若當前6,520水平失守,將打開更深層次結構性調整的大門,可能引發更廣泛的股市下跌。

納斯達克100展望

NAS100,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

NAS100,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

同樣地,納斯達克100的24,000區域亦是關鍵多空分界線。目前該水平正承受壓力;在當前宏觀背景下,若跌破該區域,可能引發新一輪下行,目標指向23,000甚至更低。

加密貨幣:BTC與ETH面臨風險

整體「風險規避」環境正迅速蔓延至加密貨幣市場。比特幣(BTC)與以太坊(ETH)等高貝塔、高波動資產正承受巨大壓力,因機構資金正回流至傳統避險資產。

BTCUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

BTCUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

若整體市場風險情緒持續惡化,BTC與ETH均面臨技術性破位的重大風險。

交易員應密切關注日內關鍵突破與支撐水平。若當前約65,500美元附近的結構性支撐失守,可能觸發連鎖清算效應,導致價格大幅下跌。

相反,多頭若要實現有效反彈,需要出現強勁且出乎意料的風險偏好回升,並重新站上70,000美元這一關鍵心理關口;在此之前,下行風險仍然占據主導。

今日關注

  • 美國初請失業金人數(美東時間8:30):衡量美國勞動力市場的重要週度指標。若數據意外上升,可能加劇滯脹擔憂,並對股市及風險資產形成進一步壓力。
  • 非農前市場倉位調整(全天):隨著關鍵的非農就業數據即將於明日公佈,預計市場將出現波動加劇及流動性缺口,機構投資者將調整倉位並對潛在風險進行對沖。

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