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風險情緒因美伊停火升溫,美元與油價回落

Ultima Markets 每日市場洞察 – 2026年4月8日

週三,全球市場迎來明顯的情緒轉變。在經歷數週激烈的地緣政治升級與高波動之後,中東局勢出現暫時性外交突破的消息,引發市場大規模解除地緣政治風險溢價,資金迅速回流風險資產。

美伊兩週停火協議緩解市場緊張情緒

隨著美國與伊朗突然達成為期兩週的停火協議,地緣政治格局出現重大轉折。這一臨時性停火協議立即降低了區域全面衝突的風險,使股市多頭得以重新進場。

推動當前市場情緒的關鍵進展包括:

  • 臨時停火生效: 為期14天的停火協議正式實施,為圍繞德黑蘭10項核心訴求的正式談判創造關鍵窗口。
  • 以色列暫停打擊: 報導指出,以色列針對伊朗能源基礎設施的報復性打擊計劃已在停火期間正式暫停。
  • 停火談判進展: 美伊談判預計將於本週五在巴基斯坦展開。
  • 風險偏好回歸: 隨著機構資金回流市場,全球股市強勁反彈,短期內暫時忽略潛在滯脹風險。

美元展望:避險買盤快速退潮

中東局勢的突然降溫削弱了美元的核心支撐。失去地緣政治避險優勢後,美元面臨全面性拋售壓力。

在此前測試100.00重要心理關口後,美元指數(USDX)已出現明顯回落。

USDX,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

市場正迅速平倉避險多頭部位,推動美元指數顯著走低。若跌破短期支撐,將確認美元進入更深層次的結構性修正。

從技術面來看,99.00此前為關鍵支撐,現轉為主要阻力,而98.70則為短期支撐。短期內,若美元持續受壓於99.00下方,將進一步確認下行趨勢;反之,若重新站上99.00,則可能進入震盪整理階段。

歐元與澳元:受惠於美元走弱

美元回落為主要貨幣對帶來喘息空間,高風險貨幣隨資金回流而強勢反彈。

對於EUR/USD而言,匯價成功守住關鍵1.1500支撐,並在風險情緒回升與美元走弱的帶動下展開反彈。多頭下一步將關注是否能形成更高高點,以確認趨勢反轉。

EURUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

EURUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技術面顯示,EUR/USD可能形成雙底與反轉結構,突破1.1630頸線位意味著反轉已初步成立。短期關注1.1630回測或1.1580支撐區域,若回測成功,將強化多頭動能。

至於AUD/USD,該貨幣對成為風險情緒回升的主要受益者之一,自0.6900強勢反彈。

AUDUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

AUDUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

匯價不僅守住支撐,亦重新站上0.7000關口,顯示此前的下跌趨勢未能延續。短期內預計將延續上行或進入高位區間整理。

原油展望:跳空下跌後進入整理

能源市場對停火消息反應劇烈。隨著中東供應風險暫時緩解,油價迅速回吐此前因戰爭溢價帶來的漲幅。

UKOUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

UKOUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

布倫特原油(UKOUSD)在開盤時出現明顯跳空下跌,反映市場快速剔除短期風險溢價。目前價格進入整理階段。

然而,市場清楚這僅為短期停火,而非永久解決方案。因此,在風險溢價完全消除之前,油價可能維持區間震盪。

技術面顯示,若100美元關口維持為阻力且跌破當前區間,將暗示買盤減弱,短期內可能出現進一步回調,除非地緣政治再次出現突發變數。

今日關注

  • 地緣政治動態(全天): 市場將密切關注美伊官員對14天談判進展的最新表態。任何摩擦跡象都可能迅速重燃避險需求。
  • 整體風險情緒(全天): 關注歐洲與美國時段開盤後主要股指與風險貨幣表現,若買盤持續,將確認市場對局勢緩和的信心。

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