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FOMC紀要重申抗通脹定力,服務業與原油共塑通脹預期

本周美聯儲會議紀要將揭示決策層在面對二次通脹風險時的內部共識。此外,新西蘭聯儲的利率決定與IEA的原油月報,將分別從非美央行政策空間與上游能源成本的角度,對全球宏觀基本面提供重要的交叉驗證。

美國6月ISM非製造業PMI
週一公佈的服務業PMI是評估美國內部通脹壓力的核心前瞻指標。若數據顯示服務業企業的投入成本繼續呈現上行趨勢,將進一步印證通脹去化的複雜性,屆時或將支撐美債收益率及美元指數上行。

新西蘭聯儲利率決定

週三焦點將轉向新西蘭聯儲。目前新西蘭經濟正面臨增長放緩與通脹回落受阻的複雜局面。因此市場目前對7月份的利率決定存在高度不確定性,維持利率不變並非板上釘釘。若聯儲傾向於拯救經濟疲態,釋放邊際降息信號,紐元將面臨沉重的下行壓力。

美聯儲公佈貨幣政策會議紀要

週四美聯儲發佈FOMC會議紀要,若紀要顯示委員會堅持數據依賴,以及維持高利率達成廣泛共識,將強化市場對緊縮環境的定價,屆時將驅動資金加速回流美元。

IEA公佈月度原油市場報告

週五IEA公佈月度原油市場報告。市場將關注IEA對下半年原油供需的缺口。若報告強調原油需求端依然保持較高韌性,這將為油價提供堅實的底部支撐。屆時或將促使美債市場在週末前維持相對緊縮的定價。

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